Fault slip tendency and induced-earthquake risks in hot dry rock development: A case study in the Tangshan Matouying HDR site

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2024.7.23

Abstract

Abstract:

Induced earthquakes are one of the major problems in hot dry rock (HDR) development. Fault slip and fluid overpressure are the two main causes of large induced earthquakes, whilst local geological conditions affect the characteristics of the earthquakes. This study selects the Matouying HDR site was selected as the study area. The seismology, tectonics, and geothermal characteristics of the HDR site were analyzed in great detail. A THM multifield coupling numerical model was established, taking into account the impact of geostresses and multiple faults. The fault stability during the HDR development was evaluated based on the calculated slip tendency of the faults, and the maximum magnitude of injection-induced slip was estimated based on the calculated volume of disturbed rocks. According to the results, during the 10-year HDR development, pore pressure on the faults changed by no more than 0.8 MPa, causing no significant changes in the effective stress on faults. The slip tendency of the faults during exploration was far lower than the slip warning threshold, and the injection process was safe. Two models for calculating seismic moment were optimized, and the calculated maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes by a 10-year loop was between 2.0—2.1. Results from this study can not only support safe development of HDR at the Matouying HDR site, but also help to gain deeper understanding of the geodynamic processes affected by engineering activities.

Key words: hot dry rock, induced earthquakes, fault slip trend, maximum magnitude, multi-field coupling

CLC Number:

SHANGGUAN Shuantong, TIAN Lanlan, PAN Miaomiao, YANG Fengliang, YUE Gaofan, SU Ye, QI Xiaofei. Fault slip tendency and induced-earthquake risks in hot dry rock development: A case study in the Tangshan Matouying HDR site[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(6): 252-260.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig.1 Distribution of major faults and historical earthquakes (M≥2.0) around the Matouying HDR site. Earthquake data are from China National Seismic Data Center (https://data.Earthquake.cn).

Fig.2 Conceptual evaluation model for induced earthquakes in HDR development at Matouying

Fig.3 Pore pressure changes in the faults during 10-year HDR development

Fig.4 Slip tendencies of faults at the Matouying HDR site before (left) and after (right) 10-year development

Fig.5 Reservoir pore pressure changes by injection during 10-year HDR development

Fig.6 Estimated maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes by HDR development

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