基于重力卫星和基流分割方法的青藏高原东部地下水储量变化分析

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2025.10.37

地学前缘 ›› 2026, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 470-482.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2025.10.37

• 水文地质新技术新方法 • 上一篇下一篇

基于重力卫星和基流分割方法的青藏高原东部地下水储量变化分析

刘苏仪¹^,²(), 韩宁³, 黄志勇⁴^,⁵, 郑龙群⁶, 张翀¹^,², 宫辉力¹^,², 潘云¹^,²^,^*()

1.首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院, 北京 100048
2.首都师范大学水资源安全北京实验室, 北京 100048
3.浙江省钱塘江流域中心, 浙江杭州 310000
4.长沙理工大学水利与海洋工程学院, 湖南长沙 410114
5.洞庭湖水环境治理与生态修复湖南省重点实验室, 湖南长沙 410114
6.湖州学院电子信息学院, 浙江湖州 313000

收稿日期:2025-06-30 修回日期:2025-10-05 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2025-11-10
通信作者: *潘云(1980—),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事卫星重力与水文学研究。E-mail: pan@cnu.edu.cn
作者简介:刘苏仪(2001—),女,硕士研究生,地图学与地理信息系统专业,主要从事卫星重力与水文学研究。E-mail: cnu.liusuyi@gmail.com
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0207)

Analyses of groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on gravimetric satellites and baseflow separation

LIU Suyi¹^,²(), HAN Ning³, HUANG Zhiyong⁴^,⁵, ZHENG Longqun⁶, ZHANG Chong¹^,², GONG Huili¹^,², PAN Yun¹^,²^,^*()

1. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
2. Beijing Laboratory of Water Resources Security, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
3. Qiantang River Basin Management Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310000, China
4. School of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China
5. Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco-Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan Province, Changsha 410114, China
6. School of Electronic Information, Huzhou College, Huzhou 313000, China

Received:2025-06-30 Revised:2025-10-05 Online:2026-01-25 Published:2025-11-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球变暖与人类活动加剧的背景下,定量解析青藏高原地下水储量时空演变是揭示“亚洲水塔”水循环变化机制的关键环节。联合重力卫星GRACE/GRACE-FO、全球陆面过程模型和全球水文模型反演青藏高原东部地下水储量变化,并将反演结果与基流分割所得结果进行对比验证。重力卫星数据反演结果表明,2003—2022年,青藏高原东部的陆地水储量变化以土壤水为主(贡献率为48.45%),其次是地下水(贡献率为32.69%),其中3个子流域(长江上游、雅砻江、大渡河,面积占比为52.7%)的陆地水储量变化以土壤水占主导,其余7个子流域(面积占比为47.3%)的陆地水储量变化以地下水占主导。青藏高原东部的地下水储量变化呈显著增加趋势((2.11±0.57) mm/a),青藏高原东部10个子流域中,7个子流域的基流分割所得地下水储量变化与重力卫星数据反演结果均呈增加趋势(相关系数r=0.78),但基流分割得到的地下水储量变化趋势明显偏小,其可能原因包括:基流退水过程中集水区面积的持续缩减;基于数值模拟的基流分割方法对研究区基流的系统性低估;重力卫星数据处理过程中的误差。多元回归分析结果显示,降水、气温和向下短波辐射共同驱动了研究区地下水储量增加趋势。

关键词: 重力卫星, GRACE/GRACE-FO, 基流分割, 地下水储量变化, 青藏高原, 气候变化

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming and intensifying human activities, quantitatively analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of groundwater storage on the Tibetan Plateau is crucial for understanding the changing mechanisms of the “Asian Water Tower” water cycle. This study combines data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellites, global land surface models, and a global hydrology model to estimate groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The results are compared and validated with those obtained from baseflow separation. For the period 2003-2022, GRACE/GRACE-FO inversion results indicate that terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes were dominated by soil moisture storage (SMS; 48.45%), followed by groundwater storage (GWS; 32.69%). Specifically, SMS was the dominant component of TWS change in three sub-basins (Upper Yangtze, Yalong River, and Dadu River, accounting for 52.7% of the area), whereas GWS was the major contributor in the remaining seven sub-basins (47.3% of the area). Over the eastern Tibetan Plateau, GWS exhibited a significant increasing trend ((2.11±0.57)mm/a). Among the 10 sub-basins, seven exhibited increasing trends in GWS changes derived from both baseflow separation and GRACE inversion, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 between the two methods. However, the increasing trends derived from baseflow separation are significantly lower, possibly due to: (1) the continuously reducing catchment area during baseflow recession, (2) a systematic underestimation of baseflow by the separation algorithm, and (3) errors inherent in GRACE/GRACE-FO data processing. Multivariate regression analysis reveals that precipitation, air temperature, and downward shortwave radiation jointly drive the increasing trend in groundwater storage across the study area.

Key words: gravimetric satellites, GRACE/GRACE-FO, baseflow separation, groundwater storage anomalies, Tibetan Plateau, climate change

中图分类号:

刘苏仪, 韩宁, 黄志勇, 郑龙群, 张翀, 宫辉力, 潘云. 基于重力卫星和基流分割方法的青藏高原东部地下水储量变化分析[J]. 地学前缘, 2026, 33(1): 470-482.

LIU Suyi, HAN Ning, HUANG Zhiyong, ZHENG Longqun, ZHANG Chong, GONG Huili, PAN Yun. Analyses of groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on gravimetric satellites and baseflow separation[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2026, 33(1): 470-482.

图/表 5

图1 青藏高原东部及子流域概况图

Fig.1 A schematic map of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins

图2 2003—2022年青藏高原东部及子流域各水储量组分贡献率及变化趋势 (a)青藏高原东部;(b)黑河上游;(c)大通河;(d)青海湖水系;(e)湟水;(f)黄河上游;(g)洮河;(h)长江上游;(i)雅砻江;(j)大渡河;(k)岷江上游;(l)青藏高原东部及其子流域地下水储量变化趋势。***表示显著性水平p<0.001; **表示显著性水平p<0.01; *表示显著性水平p<0.05; -表示显著性水平p≥0.05; 环形图表示贡献率,圆圈的大小代表陆地水储量变化强度,柱状图表示变化趋势。

Fig.2 Contribution ratio and trend of water storage components in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins during 2003—2022. (a) Eastern Tibetan Plateau; (b) Upper Heihe River; (c) Datong River; (d) Qinghai Lake Basin; (e) Huangshui River; (f) Upper Yellow River;(g) Tao River; (h) Upper Yangtze River; (i) Yalong River; (j) Dadu River; (k) Upper Min River; (l)Trends of groundwater storage change in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins. *** indicates a significance level of p<0.001; ** indicates p<0.01; * indicates p<0.05; -indicates p≥0.05. The ring charts represent the contribution rates, the size of the circles represents the intensity of terrestrial water storage changes, and the bar charts represent the variation trends.

图3 青藏高原东部及子流域基流分割所得地下水储量趋势与重力卫星结果对比 (a)青藏高原东部;(b)黑河上游;(c)大通河;(d)青海湖水系;(e)湟水;(f)黄河上游;(g)洮河;(h)长江上游;(i)雅砻江;(j)大渡河;(k)岷江上游;(l)—基于GRACE和基流退水分析的地下水储量变化趋势双误差棒图。TG为GWSAGRACE变化趋势;TB为GWSA基流分割变化趋势。

Fig.3 Comparison of trends of groundwater storage anomalies from baseflow separation and GRACE in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins. (a) Eastern Tibetan Plateau; (b) Upper Heihe River; (c) Datong River; (d) Qinghai Lake Basin; (e) Huangshui River; (f) Upper Yellow River; (g) Tao River; (h) Upper Yangtze River; (i) Yalong River; (j) Dadu River; (k) Upper Min River; (l) Dual-error bar chart of groundwater storage change trends based on GRACE and baseflow recession analysis. TG indicates the GWSAGRACE trend; TB indicates the GWSAbaseflow trend.

图4 2003—2022年基于重力卫星数据反演得到的地下水储量变化(GWSA)与气候因素(降水、向下短波辐射、气温)青藏高原东部趋势空间分布图 (a)全年GWSAGRACE;(b)全年降水;(c)全年向下短波辐射;(d)全年气温;(e)冷季GWSAGRACE;(f)冷季降水;(g)冷季向下短波辐射;(h)冷季气温;(i)暖季GWSAGRACE;(j)暖季降水;(k)暖季向下短波辐射;(l)暖季气温。

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of trends in the GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) and climatic factors (Precipitation (P), Downward Shortwave Radiation (Srad), and Air Temperature (T)) over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2022. (a) Annual GWSAGRACE; (b) Annual precipitation; (c) Annual downward shortwave radiation; (d) Annual air temperature; (e) Cold-season GWSAGRACE; (f) Cold-season precipitation; (g) Cold-season downward shortwave radiation; (h) Cold-season air temperature; (i) Warm-season GWSAGRACE; (j) Warm-season precipitation; (k) Warm-season downward shortwave radiation; (l) Warm-season air temperature.

图5 气候因素对青藏高原东部及子流域地下水储量异常的区域平均贡献率

Fig.5 Regional mean contributions of climatic factors to groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins

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基于重力卫星和基流分割方法的青藏高原东部地下水储量变化分析

Analyses of groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on gravimetric satellites and baseflow separation

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