天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.2.50

地学前缘 ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 435-446.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.2.50

天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

王鹏寿¹^,²(), 许民¹^,²^,³^,^*(), 韩海东²^,³, 李振中¹^,², 宋轩宇¹^,², 周卫永²^,⁴

1.兰州交通大学数理学院, 甘肃兰州 730070
2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000
3.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
4.兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院, 甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2022-11-17 修回日期:2023-02-20 出版日期:2024-03-25 发布日期:2024-04-18
通讯作者: *许民(1984—),男,副研究员,主要研究方向为冰冻圈水文与水资源。E-mail: xumin@1zb.ac.cn
作者简介:王鹏寿(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为气候变化与冰冻圈水文过程模拟。E-mail: wangpengshou11@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971094);国家自然科学基金项目(41871055);中国科学院青促会人才项目(2019414);中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放课题项目(SKLCS-OP-2021-11);甘肃省优秀研究生“创新之星”项目(2023CXZX-591)

Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan

WANG Pengshou¹^,²(), XU Min¹^,²^,³^,^*(), HAN Haidong²^,³, LI Zhenzhong¹^,², SONG Xuanyu¹^,², ZHOU Weiyong²^,⁴

1. School of Mathematics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Faculty of Geomatic, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2022-11-17 Revised:2023-02-20 Online:2024-03-25 Published:2024-04-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10⁸ m³,融水增加速率为0.24×10⁸ m³/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。

关键词: 度日模型, 冰川物质平衡, 融水径流, 阿克苏流域, 气候变化

Abstract:

Glacial meltwater is an important constituent of water resource in arid region of northwestern China. Quantitative assessment of meltwater changes is of significance to environmental protection and sustainable development of industry and agriculture in the middle and lower reaches. In this study, the glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan during a 60-yr period from 1957 to 2017 are simulated by the degree-day method, using daily precipitation and air temperature data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and glacier distribution data. Runoff components and runoff response to climate change are analyzed. During the 60-yr period, the mean annual mass balance was -94.6 mm w.e./a and the accumulative mass balance was -5.8 m w.e. The Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) showed a trend of runoff increase at a rate of 1.6 m/a. During the same period, meltwater runoff and runoff components showed significant increasing trend, where the mean-annual-total-runoff was 53.1×10⁸ m³/a and the rate of runoff increase was 0.24×10⁸ m³/a. Under warm and humid climate, glacier ice accumulation increased with increasing precipitation in the basin. Whilst, due to significant rise in temperature, glacial melting intensified and the effect of temperature on meltwater runoff increased. Therefore, the hydrological effect caused by the loss of glacier mass balance is enhanced. Results from this study help to further understanding of the effects of changes in regional glacier water resource.

Key words: degree-day models, glacier mass balance, meltwater runoff, Akesu River Basin, climate change

中图分类号:

王鹏寿, 许民, 韩海东, 李振中, 宋轩宇, 周卫永. 天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2024, 31(2): 435-446.

WANG Pengshou, XU Min, HAN Haidong, LI Zhenzhong, SONG Xuanyu, ZHOU Weiyong. Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(2): 435-446.

图/表 17

图1 阿克苏流域位置及气象台站和冰川分布

Fig.1 Location and distribution of meteorological stations and glaciers in Aksu River Basin

图2 模型计算流程图

Fig.2 Flow chart of model calculation

图3 阿克苏流域境内冰川面积分布

Fig.3 Distribution of glacier area by elevation in Aksu River Basin

表1 阿克苏流域各月降水梯度

Table 1 Monthly precipitation gradient in Aksu River Basin

月份	降水梯度/(mm·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.35
3	0.75
4	0.75
5	2.33
6	4.59
7	4.81
8	4.35
9	0.37
10	0.77
11	0.20
12	0.42

表2 阿克苏流域各月气温递减率

Table 2 Monthly temperature lapse rate in Aksu River Basin

月份	气温递减率/(℃·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.30
3	0.48
4	0.58
6	0.63
7	0.59
8	0.56
9	0.53
10	0.47
11	0.43
12	0.31

表3 模型参数

Table 3 Model parameters

模型参数	参数值
冰度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	2.5
雪度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	1.4
液态降水临界气温/℃	2
固态降水临界气温/℃	-0.5
液态校正系数	1.1
固态校正系数	1.3
融水渗浸冻结率	0.1
高程分带间隔/m	100

图4 阿克苏流域年均气温、年降水变化趋势与突变检验

Fig.4 Variations and M-K test of mean annual temperature and precipitation during 1960-2017 in Aksu River Basin

图5 冰川区年正积温、正积温天数、降水及降雪/降水变化趋势

Fig.5 Variation of annual positive accumulated temperature, days of positive accumulated temperature, precipitation and snowfall/precipitation in the glacier

图6 冰川区消融和积累年际变化及年内分布

Fig.6 Interannual variation and annual distribution of glacier ablation and accumulation

图7 1957—2017年阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡变化

Fig.7 Changes of glacier mass balance in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图8 阿克苏流域冰川平衡线高度变化

Fig.8 Variation of Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图9 1957—2017年冰川融水总径流量年际变化

Fig.9 Variation of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图10 1957—2017年冰川融水组成及其占比年际变化

Fig.10 Variation of meltwater composition and its proportion in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图11 1957—2017年多年月均冰川融水组成及占比变化

Fig.11 Monthly composition and proportion change of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

表4 流域气候转型前后年均降水、气温、冰川物质平衡以及融水径流变化对比

Table 4 Comparison of mean annual precipitation, temperature, glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff changes before and after climate transition in Aksu River Basin

时段及对比项	降水/mm	温度/℃	物质平衡/mm	融水径流深/mm	融水总径流量/(10⁸ m³)
1957—1990	858.0	-8.6	-83.2	1 198.8	49.99
1991—2017	937.1	-7.8	-108.9	1 323.3	57.04
变化量	79.1	0.8	25.7	124.5	7.05
变化率/%	9.2			10.3	14.1

图12 流域气候转型前后年降水、气温和融水径流的关系((a)1957—1990年;(b)1991—2017年)

Fig.12 Relationship between annual precipitation, temperature and meltwater runoff before and after climate transition ((a) 1957-1990; (b) 1991-2017)

图13 冰川物质平衡和冰川融水总径流的关系

Fig.13 Relationship between glacier mass balance and total meltwater runoff

参考文献 39

[1]	YAO T D, WU G J, XU B Q, et al. Asian water tower change and its impacts[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version), 2019, 34(11): 1203-1209.
[2]	陈亚宁, 李稚, 方功焕. 中亚天山地区关键水文要素变化与水循环研究进展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 1-8.
[3]	丁永建, 叶佰生, 刘时银. 祁连山中部地区40 a来气候变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2000, 22(3): 193-199.
[4]	IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 356-360.
[5]	JANSSON P, HOCK R, SCHNEIDER T. The concept of glacier storage: a review[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2003, 282(1/2/3/4): 116-129.
[6]	YAO T D, WANG Y Q, LIU S Y, et al. Recent glacial retreat in high Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China[J]. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2004, 47(12): 1065-1075.
[7]	高惠芸, 杨青, 梁岩鸿. 新疆阿克苏河流域降水的时空分布[J]. 干旱区研究, 2008, 25(1): 70-74.
[8]	王宁练, 张祥松. 近百年来山地冰川波动与气候变化[J]. 冰川冻土, 1992, 14(3): 242-250.
[9]	施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226.
[10]	姚旭阳, 张明军, 张宇, 等. 中国西北地区气候转型的新认识[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 671-683.
[11]	GLIMS. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS): using the world’s glaciers to monitor climate change[R]. Flagstaff: US Geological Survey, 2000. http://www.flog.wr.usgs.gov/GLIMS/glimshome.html.
[12]	ZHAO Q D, ZHANG S Q, DING Y J, et al. Modeling hydrologic response to climate change and shrinking glaciers in the highly glacierized Kunma like river catchment, Central Tian Shan[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015, 16(6): 2383-2402.
[13]	SORG A, BOLCH T, STOFFEL M, et al. Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(10): 725-731.
[14]	DUETHMANN D, MENZ C, JIANG T, et al. Projections for headwater catchments of the Tarim River reveal glacier retreat and decreasing surface water availability but uncertainties are large[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2016, 11(5): 054024.
[15]	WANG G Q, ZHANG J Y, LIU J F, et al. Quantitative assessment for climate change and human activities impact on river runoff[J]. China Water Resources, 2008, 2: 55-58.
[16]	DING C F, ZHANG H F, GAO Y Q, et al. Quantitative analysis of hydrological response to forest change in the middle of the Tianshan Mountains: a case study of the Urumqi River basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(12): 2034-2046.
[17]	沈永平, 刘时银, 丁永建, 等. 天山南坡台兰河流域冰川物质平衡变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2): 124-129.
[18]	沈永平, 刘时银, 甄丽丽, 等. 祁连山北坡流域冰川物质平衡波动及其对河西水资源的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2001, 23(3): 244-250.
[19]	沈永平, 王国亚, 丁永建, 等. 1957—2006年天山萨雷扎兹库玛拉克河流域冰川物质平衡变化及其对河流水资源的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2009, 31(5): 792-800.
[20]	张勇, 刘时银. 度日模型在冰川与积雪研究中的应用进展[J]. 冰川冻土, 2006, 28(1): 101-107.
[21]	刘时银, 丁永建, 张勇, 等. 塔里木河流域冰川变化及其对水资源影响[J]. 地理学报, 2006, 61(5): 482-490.
[22]	ZHANG S Q, YE B S, LIU S Y, et al. A modified monthly degree-day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(11): 1686-1696.
[23]	ZHANG S Q, GAO X, YE B S, et al. A modified monthly degree-day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part II: application[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(11): 1697-1706.
[24]	高鑫, 叶柏生, 张世强, 等. 1961—2006年塔里木河流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2010, 40(5): 654-665.
[25]	高鑫, 张世强, 叶柏生, 等. 1961—2006年叶尔羌河上游流域冰川融水变化及其对径流的影响[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(3): 445-453.
[26]	王利辉, 秦翔, 陈记祖, 等. 1961—2013年祁连山区冰川年物质平衡重建[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(6): 1524-1533.
[27]	ZHOU Y C. Hydrology and water resource of Xinjiang river[M]. Ürümqi: Xinjiang Science and Sanitation Press, 1999: 389-400.
[28]	WU L Z, LI X. The first glacier inventory dataset of China[DB]. Lanzhou: Cold and Arid Regions Scientific Data Center, 2004. DOI: 10.3972/westdc.011.2013.db.
[29]	HE D M, TANG Q C. International rivers in China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2000: 107-119.
[30]	LONG D J, WEI G H, ZHANG L C. Land scape change and driving force analysis of Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang during 2005-2015[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resource and Electric Power, 2018, 30(5): 28-33.
[31]	ZHOU D C, LUO G P, XU W Q, et al. Dynamics of ecosystem services value in Aksu River watershed in 1960-2008[J]. The Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(2): 399-408.
[32]	张勇, 刘时银, 上官冬辉, 等. 天山南坡科其卡尔巴契冰川度日因子变化特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2005, 27(3): 337-343.
[33]	刘时银, 丁永建, 叶佰生, 等. 度日因子用于乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川物质平衡计算的研究[C]// 第五届全国冰川冻土学大会论文集(上册). 兰州: 甘肃文化出版社, 1996: 197-204.
[34]	康尔泗, 程国栋, 蓝永超, 等. 西北干旱区内陆河流域出山径流变化趋势对气候变化响应模型[J]. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 1999, 29(增刊1): 47-54.
[35]	杨大庆, 姜彤, 张寅生, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源降水观测误差分析及其改正[J]. 冰川冻土, 1988, 10(4): 384-399, 464.
[36]	朱凯. 新疆阿克苏河流域径流演变规律及预测研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江工业大学, 2012.
[37]	张霞. 阿克苏河流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应研究[D]. 乌鲁木齐: 新疆农业大学, 2010.
[38]	王妍. 塔里木河三源流径流及其组分变化研究[D]. 西安: 西安理工大学, 2021.
[39]	WANG X L, LUO Y, SUN Y, et al. Different climate factors contributing for runoff increases in the high glacierized tributaries of Tarim River Basin, China[J]. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2021, 36: 100845.

天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 17

参考文献 39

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	夏敦胜, 杨军怀, 王树源, 刘鑫, 陈梓炫, 赵来, 牛潇毅, 金明, 高福元, 凌智永, 王飞, 李再军, 王鑫, 贾佳, 杨胜利. 雅鲁藏布江流域风成沉积空间格局、沉积模式及其环境效应[J]. 地学前缘, 2023, 30(4): 229-244.
[2]	宋轩宇, 许民, 康世昌, 孙立平. 基于机器学习的冰冻圈典型流域水文过程模拟研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2023, 30(4): 451-469.
[3]	何朝飞, 骆成彦, 陈伏龙, 龙爱华, 唐豪. 基于CMIP6多模式的和田河流域未来气候变化预估[J]. 地学前缘, 2023, 30(3): 515-528.
[4]	孙辉, 刘晓东. 青藏高原隆升气候效应的数值模拟研究进展概述[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(5): 300-309.
[5]	胡钊彬, 尉建功, 谢志远, 张伙带, 钟广法. 国际大洋钻探全球海平面变化研究进展[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(4): 10-24.
[6]	刘志飞, 陈建芳, 石学法. 深海沉积与全球变化研究的前缘与挑战[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(4): 1-9.
[7]	胡栟铫, 龙飞江, 韩喜彬, 张泳聪, 胡良明, 向波, 葛倩, 边叶萍. 中全新世以来南极宇航员海的古生产力演变[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(4): 113-122.
[8]	张宗言, 刘祥, 李响, 柯学, 张楗钰, 徐亚东. 广东雷州半岛晚渐新世—早更新世孢粉共存因子分析及古气候变化重建[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(2): 303-316.
[9]	倪艳华, 李明慧, 方小敏, 孟凡巍, 颜茂都, 刘迎新. 柴达木盆地西部中更新世气候转型期的古水温:来自SG-1钻孔石盐流体包裹体的证据[J]. 地学前缘, 2021, 28(6): 115-124.
[10]	S.K.KRIVONOGOV, T.I.KENSHINBAY, R.Kh.KURMANBAEV, B.S.KARIMOVA. 咸海演化的关键问题及其对经济、社会和生态价值的重要启示[J]. 地学前缘, 2021, 28(6): 196-204.
[11]	王军, 张骁, 高岩. 青藏高原植被动态与环境因子相互关系的研究现状与展望[J]. 地学前缘, 2021, 28(4): 70-82.
[12]	王成善，王天天，陈曦，高远，张来明. 深时古气候对未来气候变化的启示[J]. 地学前缘, 2017, 24(1): 1-17.
[13]	官开萍，田力，安志辉，叶琴，胡军，童金南. 湖北神农架西部南华纪地层序列及其区域对比[J]. 地学前缘, 2016, 23(6): 236-245.
[14]	闫立娟, 郑绵平, 魏乐军. 近40年来青藏高原湖泊变迁及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地学前缘, 2016, 23(4): 310-323.
[15]	余涛, 杨忠芳, 侯青叶, 夏学齐, 宗思锋, 李彪. 我国主要农耕区水稻土有机碳含量分布及影响因素研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2011, 18(6): 11-19.