Analyses of groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on gravimetric satellites and baseflow separation

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2025.10.37

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming and intensifying human activities, quantitatively analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of groundwater storage on the Tibetan Plateau is crucial for understanding the changing mechanisms of the “Asian Water Tower” water cycle. This study combines data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellites, global land surface models, and a global hydrology model to estimate groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The results are compared and validated with those obtained from baseflow separation. For the period 2003-2022, GRACE/GRACE-FO inversion results indicate that terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes were dominated by soil moisture storage (SMS; 48.45%), followed by groundwater storage (GWS; 32.69%). Specifically, SMS was the dominant component of TWS change in three sub-basins (Upper Yangtze, Yalong River, and Dadu River, accounting for 52.7% of the area), whereas GWS was the major contributor in the remaining seven sub-basins (47.3% of the area). Over the eastern Tibetan Plateau, GWS exhibited a significant increasing trend ((2.11±0.57)mm/a). Among the 10 sub-basins, seven exhibited increasing trends in GWS changes derived from both baseflow separation and GRACE inversion, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 between the two methods. However, the increasing trends derived from baseflow separation are significantly lower, possibly due to: (1) the continuously reducing catchment area during baseflow recession, (2) a systematic underestimation of baseflow by the separation algorithm, and (3) errors inherent in GRACE/GRACE-FO data processing. Multivariate regression analysis reveals that precipitation, air temperature, and downward shortwave radiation jointly drive the increasing trend in groundwater storage across the study area.

Key words: gravimetric satellites, GRACE/GRACE-FO, baseflow separation, groundwater storage anomalies, Tibetan Plateau, climate change

CLC Number:

LIU Suyi, HAN Ning, HUANG Zhiyong, ZHENG Longqun, ZHANG Chong, GONG Huili, PAN Yun. Analyses of groundwater storage changes in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau based on gravimetric satellites and baseflow separation[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2026, 33(1): 470-482.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig.1 A schematic map of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins

Fig.2 Contribution ratio and trend of water storage components in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins during 2003—2022. (a) Eastern Tibetan Plateau; (b) Upper Heihe River; (c) Datong River; (d) Qinghai Lake Basin; (e) Huangshui River; (f) Upper Yellow River;(g) Tao River; (h) Upper Yangtze River; (i) Yalong River; (j) Dadu River; (k) Upper Min River; (l)Trends of groundwater storage change in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins. *** indicates a significance level of p<0.001; ** indicates p<0.01; * indicates p<0.05; -indicates p≥0.05. The ring charts represent the contribution rates, the size of the circles represents the intensity of terrestrial water storage changes, and the bar charts represent the variation trends.

Fig.3 Comparison of trends of groundwater storage anomalies from baseflow separation and GRACE in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins. (a) Eastern Tibetan Plateau; (b) Upper Heihe River; (c) Datong River; (d) Qinghai Lake Basin; (e) Huangshui River; (f) Upper Yellow River; (g) Tao River; (h) Upper Yangtze River; (i) Yalong River; (j) Dadu River; (k) Upper Min River; (l) Dual-error bar chart of groundwater storage change trends based on GRACE and baseflow recession analysis. TG indicates the GWSAGRACE trend; TB indicates the GWSAbaseflow trend.

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of trends in the GRACE/GRACE-FO-derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) and climatic factors (Precipitation (P), Downward Shortwave Radiation (Srad), and Air Temperature (T)) over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2022. (a) Annual GWSAGRACE; (b) Annual precipitation; (c) Annual downward shortwave radiation; (d) Annual air temperature; (e) Cold-season GWSAGRACE; (f) Cold-season precipitation; (g) Cold-season downward shortwave radiation; (h) Cold-season air temperature; (i) Warm-season GWSAGRACE; (j) Warm-season precipitation; (k) Warm-season downward shortwave radiation; (l) Warm-season air temperature.

Fig.5 Regional mean contributions of climatic factors to groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau and the sub-basins

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