地学前缘 ›› 2022, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 410-419.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.61

• 气候变化及其预测预估 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国区域性暴雨事件未来变化:RegCM4动力降尺度集合预估

周波涛1,2(), 蔡怡亨1,2,3, 韩振宇4   

  1. 1.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室, 江苏 南京 210044
    2.南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044
    3.四川省气候中心, 四川 成都 610072
    4.中国气象局 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-04 修回日期:2021-09-21 出版日期:2022-09-25 发布日期:2022-08-24
  • 作者简介:周波涛(1979—),男,博士,教授,主要从事气候变化与机理及预测预估研究工作。E-mail: zhoubt@nuist.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41991285);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFA0606301)

Regional rainstorm changes in China: Ensemble projection via RegCM4 dynamical downscaling

ZHOU Botao1,2(), CAI Yiheng1,2,3, HAN Zhenyu4   

  1. 1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    3. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China
    4. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2021-08-04 Revised:2021-09-21 Online:2022-09-25 Published:2022-08-24

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摘要：

区域性暴雨事件由于影响范围大、持续时间长,更易引发严重洪涝灾害,对经济社会可持续发展构成严重威胁。因此,预估区域性暴雨事件的未来变化对于气候变化适应和灾害风险管理意义重大。本文基于区域气候模式RegCM4对4个全球气候模式的动力降尺度模拟,利用“追踪式”客观识别方法,对我国区域性暴雨进行了识别,并从发生频次、持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度5个方面预估了其在RCP4.5情景下的未来变化。多模式预估结果表明,我国平均区域性暴雨事件的发生频次、持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度到21世纪末均呈不同程度的上升趋势。与1986—2005年相比,无论在21世纪中期(2046—2065年)还是末期(2080—2099年),位于“低值区”的事件出现频率减少,而位于“高值区”的事件出现频率增加。轻度区域性暴雨事件发生频次将减少,而中度、重度和严重的区域性暴雨事件发生频次将增加。在空间分布上,区域性暴雨事件的发生频次、持续时间和降水量均在我国东部区域大范围增加,并且三者增幅的空间分布型态较为一致。增加最显著的区域主要位于长江中下游、江南和华南地区,而且到21世纪末期的增加幅度大于中期。

关键词: 区域性暴雨事件, 区域气候模式, 动力降尺度, 集合预估

Abstract:

Regional rainstorms usually occur over large areas and persist for a long time, which can lead to severe flooding disasters and pose serious risks to the sustainable socioeconomic development of the affected areas. Thus, projection of regional rainstorm changes is crucial for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management in China. Based on regional dynamical downscaling with RegCM4 from four global climate models, this study firstly identifies regional rainstorm events by a “tracing” method, and then projects changes in 5 rainstorm parameters—frequency, duration, average amount, average affected area, and comprehensive intensity—during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario. The resulting ensemble projection indicates national-scale rising trends in all 5 rainstorm parameters toward the end of the 21st century. Relative to 1986-2005, the proportion of regional rainstorms with high rainstorm parameter values is projected to increase during mid- and end-21st century, while small rainstorm parameter values occur less frequently. Spatially, the frequency, duration, and amount of regional rainstorms are projected to increase across eastern China, with similar spatial distribution patterns for the amplitude increase. The largest increase is in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and southern China, with larger increases towards the end of the 21st century.

Key words: regional rainstorm events, regional climate model, dynamical downscaling, ensemble projection

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