亚洲高山区全新世中期气候及其影响下的冰川模拟

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.55

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文利用一个1 km分辨率冰盖模式和11个PMIP4全球气候模式,研究了全新世中期亚洲高山区气候和冰川的变化特征。多模式集合平均结果显示,(1)全新世中期亚洲高山区年平均温度较工业革命前期降低了约0.7 ℃,夏季气温升高约0.7 ℃,冬季气温降低约1.8 ℃,全新世中期年平均降水略微增加(0.5%),但夏季和冬季降水分别增加和减少了约16%;(2)全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川较工业革命前期整体显著退缩,面积减少了约13%,体积减小了约8%。在区域尺度上,全新世中期亚洲高山区北部冰川的面积(体积)减少了约58%(47%),西部冰川的面积(体积)减少了约26%(25%),而南部冰川的面积(体积)增加了约20%(39%);(3)全新世中期夏季升温主导亚洲高山区北部和西部冰川的退缩,而降水增多是亚洲高山区南部冰川扩张的首要控制因子。本研究有助于加深理解全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川的变化格局和驱动因子。

关键词: 全新世中期, 亚洲高山区, 冰川作用, 冰盖模拟, 气候模拟

Abstract:

Using a 1-km resolution ice sheet model and the results from 11 global climate models in PMIP4, we investigate the spatial features of climatic changes in High-Mountain Asia (HMA) and their effects on glaciation during the mid-Holocene. The multi-model ensemble mean demonstrates that the annual mean temperature averaged across HMA reduces by ~0.7 ℃ during the mid-Holocene relative to pre-industrial, with a warming (0.7 ℃) and cooling (0.7 ℃) in summer and winter, respectively. The annual mean precipitation during the mid-Holocene shows a slight increase (0.5%) in HMA, whereas summer (winter) precipitation changes by +16% (-16%). HMA glaciers exhibit an obvious recession during the mid-Holocene relative to pre-industrial, with a reduction in ice extent (volume) by 13% (8%). Regarding the regional pattern, glaciers of the northern and western HMA retreat by ~58% (47%) and ~26% (25%), respectively, in terms of ice extent (volume). In contrast, glacier advance is observed over the southern HMA, with an increase in ice extent (volume) by ~20% (39%). Additionally, sensitivity experiments suggest that summer warming during the mid-Holocene dominate glacier recession in the northern and western HMA, whereas enhanced precipitation contributes largely to glacier advance in the southern HMA. These results may help to deepen our understanding of the variation of HMA glaciation during the mid-Holocene.

Key words: mid-Holocene, High-Mountain Asia, glaciation, ice sheet modeling, climate modeling

中图分类号:

P467

燕青. 亚洲高山区全新世中期气候及其影响下的冰川模拟[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(5): 372-381.

YAN Qing. Climate change and the associated glacier response in High-Mountain Asia during the mid-Holocene: A modeling study[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 372-381.

图/表 7

表1 本文所采用的PMIP4气候模式信息简介(详细信息可见 https://pmip4.lsce.ipsl.fr/)

Table 1 Information of the PMIP4 climate models (see https://pmip4.lsce.ipsl.fr/ for details)

编号	模式名称	机构(国家)	分辨率/格点数
1	AWI-ESM-1-1-LR	Alfred Wegener Institute (Germany)	192×96
2	CESM2	National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)	288×192
3	EC-Earth3-LR	Stockholm University (Sweden)	320×160
4	FGOALS-f3-L	Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China)	288×180
5	FGOALS-g3	Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China)	180×90
6	GISS-E2-1-G	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA)	144×90
7	INM-CM4-8	Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Russia)	180×120
8	IPSL-CM6A-LR	Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (France)	144×143
9	MIROC-ES2L	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo (Japan)	128×64
10	NESM3	Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (China)	192×96
11	NorESM1-F	Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway)	144×96

图1 观测(a)和模拟(b)的现代亚洲高山区冰川分布

Fig.1 Observed (a) and modelled (b) glacier distribution during the present-day.

图2 基于PMIP4多模式集合平均的亚洲高山区全新世中期相对于工业革命前期的气温变化 a—年平均;b—夏季;c—冬季。

Fig.2 Difference in temperature (℃) over High-mountain Asia between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial for (a) annual mean, (b) summer season, and (c) winter season based on the multimodel ensemble mean from PMIP4.

图3 区域平均的亚洲高山区全新世中期相对于工业革命前期的气温(a)和降水变化(b)箱形图。箱形图中自上而下分别为11个PMIP4模式结果中的最大值,上四分位数,平均值,下四分位数和最小值(星号表示中位数)。

Fig.3 Box-plot for difference in temperature (a) and precipitation (b) between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across High-mountain Asia based on the 11 PMIP4 models. In a box-plot, the horizontal lines from top to below represent the maximum value, the 75th percentile, the mean, the 25th percentile, and the minimum value (the asterisk shows the median), respectively.

图4 基于PMIP4多模式集合平均的亚洲高山区全新世中期相对于工业革命前期的降水变化 a—年平均;b—夏季;c—冬季。

Fig.4 Difference in precipitation (%) over High-mountain Asia between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial for (a) annual mean, (b) summer season, and (c) winter season based on the multimodel ensemble mean from PMIP4

图5 全新世中期亚洲高山区及其3个子区域冰川面积(a, b)和体积(c, d)相对于工业革命前期的相对变化(a, c)和绝对变化(b, d)的箱形图。箱形图中自上而下分别为11个PMIP4模式结果中的最大值,上四分位数,平均值,下四分位数和最小值(星号表示中位数)。

Fig.5 Box-plot for relative (a, c) and absolute (b, c) changes in glacier area (a, b) and volume (c, d) between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across the High-mountain Asia and its three sub-regions based on the 11 PMIP4 models. In a box-plot, the horizontal lines from top to below represent the maximum value, the 75th percentile, the mean, the 25th percentile, and theminimum value (the asterisk shows the median), respectively.

图6 模拟的全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川相对于工业革命前期的空间变化(a)和总面积变化(b)。图b中,灰色柱表示同时考虑全新世中期温度和降水变化的作用,红色柱表示仅考虑全新世中期温度变化的作用,蓝色柱表示仅考虑全新世中期降水变化的作用。

Fig.6 (a) Spatial distribution of change in glacier extent between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial with the climatic forcing from the PMIP4 multimodel ensemble mean. (b) Relative change in glacier area between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across the High-mountain Asia and its three sub-regions. The grey bars show the effects of both of temperature and precipitation change, with the red (blue) bars representing the influence of only temperature (precipitation) change.

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