全新世中期中国气候和东亚季风:PMIP4模式结果

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.52

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用国际古气候模拟比较计划(PMIP)最新第四阶段(PMIP4)中14个气候模式的试验数据,集中研究了距今约6 000年的全新世中期中国气候和东亚季风。与早期PMIP第三阶段(PMIP3)多模式结果类似,全新世中期中国年、冬季和春季地表气温较工业革命前期偏冷,而夏季和秋季偏暖,其中年和冬季模拟偏冷与大部分地质记录显示的偏暖不符;所有14个PMIP4模式集合的中国区域平均年和季节温度变化绝对值为0.08~1.69 ℃,较PMIP3多模式平均结果额外偏小0.01~0.45 ℃,这部分源于大气二氧化碳浓度的减少。在用于分析的11个PMIP4模式平均结果中,全新世中期中国年平均降水、蒸发和有效降水(即降水量减蒸发量)相对于工业革命前期分别增加2%、减少1%和增加7%,所有3个物理量在季节上均表现为冬春季减少,夏秋季增加。对比PMIP4模式和PMIP3多模式平均结果,上述3个物理量的中国区域平均值和区域变化差异均在夏、秋季大于年和冬、春季;相比于PMIP3模式,PMIP4模式模拟的年有效降水变化与地质记录更为接近。全新世中期东亚冬、夏季风在14个PMIP4模式中均模拟加强,所有模式平均较工业革命前期分别增强11%和32%;在区域尺度上,与早期PMIP3模式相比,当前PMIP4模式模拟的季风环流增强幅度在东亚北部更强,南部偏弱。

关键词: 全新世中期, 中国气候, 东亚季风, PMIP4模式

Abstract:

We revisited the climate in China and the East Asian monsoon during the mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) via PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4) simulation using 14 climate models. Similar to the previous simulation results using PMIP3 models, the mid-Holocene surface air temperatures were cooler for the annual (-0.61 ℃), winter (-1.65 ℃) and spring (-1.69 ℃) means and warmer for the summer (+0.80 ℃) and autumn (+0.08 ℃) means compared to the preindustrial period. The annual and winter cooling results run contrary to the warming results as inferred from most geological records. There was an extra cooling of 0.01-0.45 ℃ over the PMIP3 results, partly due to a reduction in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. By PMIP4 simulation using 11 climate models, the mid-Holocene annual precipitation increased by 2%, evaporation decreased by 1%, and net precipitation (i.e., precipitation minus evaporation) increased by 7% relative to their preindustrial levels in terms of arithmetic means; seasonally, all three variables decreased for winter and spring and increased for summer and autumn. Comparatively, between PMIP4 and PMIP3 models for the above three variables, the differences in their national means and regional changes were relatively larger for summer and autumn than for the year and the other two seasons. And compared to the PMIP3 model results, the annual net precipitation change by PMIP4 simulation is closer to geological records. All 14 PMIP4 models reproduced a consistent strengthening of the East Asian winter and summer monsoon intensities during the mid-Holocene by 11% and 32% on average, respectively, compared to the preindustrial period. Regionally, the increases in monsoon circulation by PMIP4 simulation were larger in the north and smaller in the south of East Asia relative to the increases by PMIP3 simulation.

Key words: mid-Holocene, climate in China, East Asian monsoon, PMIP4 simulations

中图分类号:

P534.63
P532

田芝平, 张冉, 姜大膀. 全新世中期中国气候和东亚季风:PMIP4模式结果[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(5): 355-371.

TIAN Zhiping, ZHANG Ran, JIANG Dabang. Mid-Holocene climate in China and the East Asian monsoon: Insights from PMIP4 simulations[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 355-371.

图/表 10

表1 PMIP4中14个气候模式全新世中期气候试验的基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of the 14 climate models within PMIP4 for the Mid-Holocene experiments in this study

气候模式		所属国家	大气模式水平分辨率(经度×纬度) 和垂直分层	数值试验积分时间/ 模式年
1	AWI-ESM-1-1-LR	德国	1.875°×1.9°, L47	100
2	CESM2	美国	1.25°×0.9°, L32	700
3	EC-Earth3-LR	欧盟	1.125°×1.1°, L62	203
4	FGOALS-f3-L	中国	1.25°×1°, L32	500
5	FGOALS-g3	中国	2°×(2°~5°), L26	500
6	GISS-E2-1-G	法国	2.5°×2°, L40	100
7	INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯	2°×1.5°, L21	200
8	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	2.5°×1.3°, L79	550
9	MIROC-ES2L	日本	2.8125°×2.8°, L40	100
10	MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	1.875°×2°, L47	500
11	MRI-ESM2-0	日本	1.125°×1.1°, L80	200
12	NESM3^*	中国	1.875°×1.9°, L47	100
13	NorESM1-F	挪威	2.5°×1.9°, L32	200
14	NorESM2-LM	挪威	2.5°×1.9°, L32	100

表2 PMIP3和PMIP4试验设计中的边界条件

Table 2 Boundary conditions for the experiment designs within the PMIP3 and PMIP4

边界条件		PMIP3试验		PMIP4试验
		工业革命前期	全新世中期		工业革命前期		全新世中期
地球轨道参数	偏心率	0.016724	0.018682	0.016764		0.018682
	黄赤交角(°)	23.446	24.105	23.459		24.105
	岁差(°)	102.04	0.87	100.33		0.87
大气温室气体	二氧化碳浓度/(μL·L^-1)	280	280	284.3		264.4
	甲烷浓度/(nL·L^-1)	760	650	808.2		597
	氧化亚氮浓度/(nL·L^-1)	270	270	273.0		262
太阳常数/(W·m^-2)		1365	同工业革命前期	1360.747		同工业革命前期
植被		固定或计算值	同工业革命前期	固定或计算值		同工业革命前期
气溶胶		固定或计算值	同工业革命前期	固定或计算值		同工业革命前期

图1 PMIP4模式工业革命前期气候模拟相对于观测各要素场的泰勒图 a和b—分别为14和13个模式模拟和1961—2000年观测的温度和降水场;c—14个模式模拟和1979—2000年观测的20°~45°N和105°~135°E区域内850 hPa经向风场;数字对应表1中的模式;星号表示用于温度和风场(降水)分析的14(11)个多模式集合平均;蓝色、绿色、红色、橙色和黑色依次代表冬、春、夏、秋季平均值和年平均值;REF点表示观测;数字到原点的距离表示模拟与观测场之间的标准差之比;数字对应的方位角位置表示模拟与观测场之间的空间相关系数(斜虚线表示99%显著性水平;数字到REF点的距离表示经观测场标准差标准化之后的中心化均方根误差。

Fig.1 Taylor diagram displaying the normalized pattern statistics of climatological variables between preindustrial simulations in PMIP4 models and observations

图2 相对于工业革命前期,PMIP4模式及多模式平均模拟的全新世中期各要素区域平均变化 a—中国温度;b—中国降水量;c—中国蒸发量;d—中国有效降水量;e—20°~45°N和105°~135°E区域内东亚季风强度;蓝色、绿色、红色、橙色和黑色柱状图依次代表冬、春、夏、秋季平均值和年平均值;垂直误差线代表正负一个标准差范围。

Fig.2 Mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes of regionally averaged variables in PMIP4 models and their multi-model mean

图3 相对于工业革命前期多模式集合平均模拟的全新世中期中国年和季节温度变化(单位:℃) 审图号:GS(2020)4619 a,f,k—年平均;b,g,l—冬季;c,h,m—春季;d,i,n—夏季;e,j,o—秋季; a-e, f-j, k-o—分别为14个PMIP4模式平均、15个PMIP3模式平均以及前者与后者之差;括号内数值为中国区域平均变化值;打点区表示70%以上的模式与集合平均变化符号一致。

Fig.3 Mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes of annual and seasonal temperatures (℃) for the multi-model arithmetic mean

图4 相对于工业革命前期多模式集合平均模拟的全新世中期中国年和季节降水量变化审图号:GS(2020)4619 a,f,k—年平均降水量;b,g,l—冬季降水量;c,h,m—春季降水量;d,i,n—夏季降水量;e,j,o—秋季降水量; a-e,f-j,k-o—分别为11个PMIP4模式平均(单位:%)、14个PMIP3模式平均(单位:%)以及前者与后者之差(单位:mm/d);括号内数值为中国区域平均变化值;打点区表示70%以上的模式与集合平均变化符号一致。

Fig.4 Mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes of annual and seasonal precipitation for the multi-model arithmetic mean

图5 相对于工业革命前期多模式集合平均模拟的全新世中期中国年和季节蒸发量变化审图号:GS(2020)4619 a,f,k—年平均蒸发量;b,g,l—冬季蒸发量;c,h,m—春季蒸发量;d,i,n—夏季蒸发量;e,j,o—秋季蒸发量;a-e,f-j,k-o—分别为11个PMIP4模式平均(单位:%)、14个PMIP3模式平均(单位:%)以及前者与后者之差(单位:mm/d);括号内数值为中国区域平均变化值;打点区表示70%以上的模式与集合平均变化符号一致。

Fig.5 Mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes of annual and seasonal evaporation for the multi-model arithmetic mean

图6 相对于工业革命前期多模式集合平均模拟的全新世中期中国年和季节有效降水量变化(单位:mm/d) 审图号:GS(2020)4619

Fig.6 Mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes of annual and seasonal net precipitation (mm/day) for the multi-model arithmetic mean

图7 观测和模式集合平均模拟的850 hPa风场(单位:m/s) a-d—冬季风场;e-h—夏季风场;a,e—1979—2000年观测;b,f和c,g—分别为14个PMIP4模式平均工业革命前期及全新世中期相对于工业革命前期变化的模拟结果;d,h—14个PMIP4与12/13个PMIP3模式平均模拟的全新世中期变化差值场;矩形框为20°~45°N和105°~135°E区域范围,空白区表示地形高度大于1 500 m。

Fig.7 Winds at 850 hPa (m/s) in observations and simulations from the arithmetic mean of the PMIP4/3 models

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