全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.53

地学前缘 ›› 2022, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 342-354.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.53

全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展

孙炜毅¹(), 刘健¹^,²^,³^,^*(), 严蜜¹^,³, 宁亮¹^,³

1.南京师范大学地理科学学院虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210023
2.南京师范大学数学科学学院江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室, 江苏南京 210023
3.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋-气候-同位素模拟开放工作室, 山东青岛 266237

收稿日期:2021-08-06 修回日期:2021-09-21 出版日期:2022-09-25 发布日期:2022-08-24
通信作者: 刘健
作者简介:孙炜毅(1991—),男,博士,讲师,主要从事古气候模拟研究工作。E-mail: 09435@njnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42130604);国家自然科学基金项目(42105044);国家自然科学基金项目(41971108);国家自然科学基金项目(42111530182);国家自然科学基金项目(91437218);国家自然科学基金项目(42075049);国家自然科学基金项目(41971021);中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLLQG1820);中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLLQG1930);江苏省高校优势学科建设项目(164320H116)

Centennial to millennial variability of the Asian monsoon during the Holocene: Progress in simulation studies

SUN Weiyi¹(), LIU Jian¹^,²^,³^,^*(), YAN Mi¹^,³, NING Liang¹^,³

1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education/State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province/Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
3. Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China

Received:2021-08-06 Revised:2021-09-21 Online:2022-09-25 Published:2022-08-24
Contact: LIU Jian

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候重建工作的深入开展极大地促进了全新世亚洲季风变化的研究,然而当前重建结果对亚洲季风的演变特征和机理存在很大争议,开展古气候模拟对理解全新世亚洲季风演变的时空特征和成因机制具有重要意义。为此,本文主要从气候模式模拟的角度回顾全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究工作,并将从外强迫和气候系统内部变率这两个角度对机制进行探讨。主要有以下进展:全新世瞬变模拟试验结果反映早全新世以来亚洲季风降水呈下降趋势,这主要受到地球轨道参数的影响,并通过改变海陆热力差异和半球间温度梯度来影响亚洲季风降水。在百年尺度弱季风事件上,模拟的8.2 ka BP时期的亚洲季风弱事件主要是由冰川融水触发,引起大西洋经向翻转环流AMOC减弱并通过大气遥相关导致季风降水减少;而4.2 ka BP时期模式模拟的亚洲弱季风事件主要是受内部变率所主导而并非外强迫因子影响。亚洲季风百年尺度变化的模拟研究主要集中在过去2 000年时段,中世纪气候异常期季风明显增强,而在小冰期逐渐减弱,太阳辐射和火山活动是影响其变化的主导因子,它们通过影响海陆热力差异、印—太海温变化来影响季风变化。

关键词: 亚洲季风, 全新世, 古气候模拟, 百年-千年尺度, 外强迫因子, 内部变率

Abstract:

The development of climate reconstruction greatly promotes the study of Asian monsoon variability in the Holocene. However, the current reconstruction result on the characteristics and mechanisms of the Asian monsoon evolution remains controversial. Meanwhile, paleoclimate simulation can contribute significantly to the understanding of the temporal-spatial characteristics and genetic mechanisms of the Asian monsoon evolution in the Holocene. This paper reviews simulation studies on the centennial to millennial-scale Asian monsoon variations during the Holocene from the perspective of climate modeling, and discusses the mechanisms from the perspectives of external forcing and internal variability. Among the main progresses, the Holocene transient simulation results show a downward trend in the Asian monsoon precipitation since the early Holocene, which is thought to be affected mainly by the earth orbital parameters, as well as changes in land-sea thermal contrast and inter-hemispheric temperature gradient. For centennial-scale weak monsoons, simulation of a 8.2 ka BP weak monsoon event reveals glacial melting water as the main trigger for the weakening of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and atmospheric teleconnection; whilst simulation of a 4.2 ka BP weak monsoon event indicates such event may be controlled by internal variability rather than external forcing. Simulation studies on the centennial-scale changes mainly focus on the past 2 000 years. The results show an obvious increase of Asian monsoon precipitation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly but a gradual decrease during the Little Ice Age. Solar radiation and volcanic activity play a crucial role in centennial-scale Asian monsoon variations through influencing land-sea thermal contrast and Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature change.

Key words: Asian monsoon, Holocene, paleoclimate simulation, centennial-millennium timescale, external forcing, internal variability

中图分类号:

P467

孙炜毅, 刘健, 严蜜, 宁亮. 全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(5): 342-354.

SUN Weiyi, LIU Jian, YAN Mi, NING Liang. Centennial to millennial variability of the Asian monsoon during the Holocene: Progress in simulation studies[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 342-354.

图/表 4

图1 模拟的全新世以来亚洲季风区6—8月降水距平 a—Trace-21ka试验结果,依次为全强迫(AF,黑线)、地球轨道参数(ORB,蓝线)、温室气体(GHGs,红线)、冰盖(ICE,橘黄线)和淡水通量(MWF,黄线);b—NNU-12ka 10年加速试验结果,依次为地球轨道参数(黑线)以及分别叠加温室气体(蓝线)、太阳活动(TSI,红线)和土地利用/覆盖(LUCC,橘黄线)。Trace-21ka试验结果经过了10 a插值,NNU-12ka试验结果是10 a分辨率,之后对两套数据进行11点滑动平均处理。本图所模拟结果相对于整个时段平均。

Fig.1 The simulated June-August mean precipitation anomaly in Asian monsoon region during the Holocene

图2 全新世外强迫因子时间序列 a—地球轨道参数(岁差、倾角和偏心率);b—全球平均大陆冰盖变化;c—北半球淡水通量;d—太阳活动变化;e—温室气体。

Fig.2 Time series of external forcing during the Holocene

图3 中全新世地球轨道参数引起的北半球夏季太阳辐射变化对亚洲季风的影响机理示意图

Fig.3 Mechanism diagram of the impact of mid-Holocene Earth orbit parameters on the Asian monsoon through the variation of summer solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere

图4 早全新世劳伦泰德冰盖融水对亚洲季风的影响机理示意图

Fig.4 Mechanism diagram of the effect of early Holocene Laurentide ice sheet melting on the Asian monsoon

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全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展

Centennial to millennial variability of the Asian monsoon during the Holocene: Progress in simulation studies

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