末次间冰期全球气候瞬变模拟与平衡态模拟的对比研究

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2024.1.5

地学前缘 ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 486-499.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2024.1.5

• 环境变化与生物圈层相互作用 • 上一篇下一篇

末次间冰期全球气候瞬变模拟与平衡态模拟的对比研究

江南萱¹^,²(), 燕青¹^,³, 王会军¹^,³^,^*()

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029
2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
3.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044

收稿日期:2023-11-02 修回日期:2023-12-28 出版日期:2024-01-25 发布日期:2024-01-25
通讯作者: *王会军(1964—),男,教授,博士生导师,中国科学院院士,主要从事气候动力学、气候变化和气候预测理论等方面的研究工作。E-mail: wanghj@mail.iap.ac.cn
作者简介:江南萱(1997—),女,博士研究生,主要从事古气候模拟研究。E-mail: jiangnanxuan19@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42022036)

Transient and time-slice simulations of global climate change during the Last Interglacial: Model-model and model-data comparisons

JIANG Nanxuan¹^,²(), YAN Qing¹^,³, WANG Huijun¹^,³^,^*()

1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2023-11-02 Revised:2023-12-28 Online:2024-01-25 Published:2024-01-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用水平分辨率约1°的地球系统模式CESM,本研究开展了末次间冰期129~124 ka的瞬变模拟试验(TGCS-LIG)和127 ka的平衡态切片模拟试验(127ka-LIG),量化了数值试验方案对模拟的末次间冰期全球气候的影响,以期加深理解造成模拟结果与重建数据之间分歧的可能原因。TGCS-LIG试验和127ka-LIG试验均表明:末次间冰期全球年平均温度较工业革命前低,降温幅度分别为0.4 ℃和0.2 ℃;在夏季,北半球升温(1.2/1.5 ℃),而南半球降温(0.9/0.7 ℃)。就年降水而言,末次间冰期北半球季风区降水增加,南半球季风区降水减少,但存在显著的区域差异。与重建数据相比,TGCS-LIG试验和127ka-LIG试验的模拟-数据符号一致性与均方根误差均相近,但127ka-LIG试验模拟效果略好。TGCS-LIG试验与重建的全球年平均(夏季)海温符号一致性为34.9%~44.7%(36.8%~42.5%),较127ka-LIG偏差约2%~4%(约5%~7%);均方根误差为2.9~3.2 ℃(2.9~3.4 ℃),较127ka-LIG试验偏差小于约0.1 ℃。对于全球年平均降水,TGCS-LIG试验与重建数据的符号一致性为63.8%,略高于127ka-LIG试验(63.1%)。相较于模拟和重建之间的绝对偏差而言,数值试验方案对于改进两者分歧的作用十分有限。需要注意的是,TGCS-LIG试验表明:末次间冰期全球关键气候模态的年际变率在129~124 ka间存在显著的内部变化,其中ENSO年际变率随时间逐渐增强,北半球环状模与南半球环状模的年际变率呈现千年尺度波动的特征;而127ka-LIG试验无法刻画气候模态的时间演变特征。总之,本文研究结果表明,采用平衡模拟试验或是瞬变模拟试验并不是造成末次间冰期模拟-数据分歧的主要原因,但开展高时空分辨率的瞬变模拟试验对研究末次间冰期气候变率具有重要的科学价值。

关键词: 末次间冰期, 模拟-重建对比, 瞬变试验, 平衡态试验

Abstract:

Performing transient simulation during 129-124 ka (TGCS-LIG) at high temporal and spatial resolutions (~1° × 1°, without orbital acceleration) and time-slice experiment at 127 ka (127ka-LIG) can advance our knowledge on the role of experimental setup in the simulation of climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here, we quantitatively estimate the impact of the experimental setup on the simulated global climate change during the LIG, which may shed light on the potential reasons for model-data discrepancies during the LIG. According to TGCS-LIG/127ka-LIG experiments, the global annual mean surface temperatures decreased by 0.4 ℃/0.2 ℃ during LIG relative to the preindustrial era, with the summer surface temperature over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere increased (decreased) by 1.2 ℃/1.5 ℃ (0.9 ℃/0.7 ℃). During LIG, the annual mean monsoonal precipitation increased (decreased) over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere, with large discrepancies across sub-regions. The hit rates (i.e., percentage agreement between model and reconstructed data) and root mean square errors were comparable between the two experiments. For global annual (summer) sea surface temperatures, the hit rates between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions were 34.9%-44.7% (36.8%-42.5%), biased by ~2%-4% (~5%-7%) compared with that of 127ka-LIG; root mean square errors between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions were 2.9-3.2 ℃ (2.9-3.4 ℃), which were ~0.1 ℃ biased compared with 127ka-LIG (generally consistent with 127ka-LIG). For global annual precipitation, the hit rate between TGCS-LIG and multi-proxies was 63.8%, higher by 0.7% relative to 127ka-LIG. The above results indicated that model-model differences were relatively small compared with model-data discrepancies. It is worth noting that TGCS-LIG suggested that the interannual variability of the ENSO showed an increasing trend, whereas the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode fluctuated. These characteristics of varied interannual variability revealed by TGCS-LIG were hardly deciphered in 127ka-LIG. Overall, we suggest that the differences in experimental setup for LIG climate simulations ((i.e. using the time-slice experiment or the transient simulation) may have limited impact on reconciling model-data discrepancies during the LIG, nevertheless, we still highlight the importance of performing transient simulation at high resolution in the investigation of climate variability during the LIG.

Key words: Last Interglacial, model-data comparisons, transient simulation, time-slice experiment

中图分类号:

P467

江南萱, 燕青, 王会军. 末次间冰期全球气候瞬变模拟与平衡态模拟的对比研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2024, 31(1): 486-499.

JIANG Nanxuan, YAN Qing, WANG Huijun. Transient and time-slice simulations of global climate change during the Last Interglacial: Model-model and model-data comparisons[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(1): 486-499.

图/表 7

表1 130ka-LIG、127ka-LIG与工业革命前试验采用的外强迫

Table 1 External forcings used in the 130ka-LIG, 127ka-LIG and PI experiments

模式驱动因子		130 ka (130ka-LIG)	127 ka (127ka-LIG)	1950 A.D. (PI)
轨道参数	偏心率	0.038 209	0.039 378	0.016 724
	倾角	24.242°	24.040°	23.466°
	近日点-180	228.32°	275.41°	102.04°
温室气体	CO₂浓度	258×10^-6	275×10^-6	280×10^-6
	CH₄浓度	518×10^-9	685×10^-9	760×10^-9
	N₂O浓度	238×10^-9	255×10^-9	270×10^-9
	其余温室气体	0	0	PI

图1 130~123 ka的(a)CO2浓度(单位:10-6)、(b)CH4浓度(单位:10-9)、(c)N2O浓度(单位:10-9)与(d)65°N的7月大气顶太阳辐射演变(单位:W/m2)

Fig.1 The evolution of (a) CO2 (units: 10-6), (b) CH4 (units: 10-9), (c) N2O (units: 10-9), and July insolation at 65°N at the top of atmosphere (units: W/m2) during 130-123 ka

图2 (a,d)TGCS-LIG试验末次间冰期(129~124 ka)与工业革命前的(a)年平均表面温度和(b)夏季表面温度异常(单位:℃)。(b,e)127ka-LIG试验末次间冰期(127 ka)与工业革命前的(b)年平均表面温度和(e)夏季表面温度异常(单位:℃)。(c,f)TGCS-LIG试验与127ka-LIG试验的(c)年平均表面温度和(f)夏季表面温度异常(单位:℃)。图上打点表示重建资料指示末次间冰期偏暖(红色)与偏冷(蓝色)。图中方形、三角形、圆形和十字标志分别表示重建数据来自Turney等[1]、Hoffman等[2]、Capron等[18,47]和Brewer等[48]。

Fig.2 Anomaly of (a, b) annual and (b, e) summer surface temperature during the Last Interglacial relative to the preindustrial based on (a, d) TGCS-LIG experiment (shade), (b, e) 127ka-LIG experiment (shade) and reconstructions from Turney et al.[1] (square), Capron et al.[18,47] (circle), Hoffman et al.[2] (triangle) and Brewer et al.[48] (cross) (units: ℃). (c, f) Difference of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and 127ka-LIG (units: ℃). The red and blue markers represent reconstructed warmer and colder states during the Last Interglacial, respectively.

图3 (a,d)TGCS-LIG与重建数据的(a)年平均温度与(d)夏季温度的符号一致性(单位:%)。(b,e)127ka-LIG与重建数据的(b)年平均温度与(e)夏季温度的符号一致性(单位:%)。(c,f)127ka-LIG与TGCS-LIG的(c)年平均温度与(b)夏季温度的符号一致性差异(单位:%)。北大西洋经纬度范围为0°~90°N,90°W~10°E;北太平洋经纬度范围为0°~90°N,100°E~90°W;北印度洋范围为0°~90°N,60°~100°E;南大西洋范围为0°~90°S,60°W~30°E;南太平洋范围为0°~90°S,110°E~60°W;南印度洋范围为0°~90°S,30°E~110°E

Fig.3 (a, d) Hit rate of (a) annual and (d) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (b, e) Hit rate of (b) annual and (e) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (c, f) Difference in hit rate of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between 127ka-LIG and TGCS-LIG (units: %). The North Atlantic was over 0-90°N, 90°W-10°E. The North Pacific was over 0-90°N, 100°E-90°W. The North Indian was over 0-90°N, 60°-100°E. The South Atlantic was over 0-90°S, 60°W-30°E. The South Pacific was over 0-90°S, 110°E-60°W. The South Indian was over 0-90°S, 30°E-110°E.

图4 (a,d)TGCS-LIG与重建数据的(a)年平均温度与(d)夏季温度的均方根误差。(b,e)127ka-LIG与重建数据的(b)年平均温度与(e)夏季温度的均方根误差。(c,f)127ka-LIG与TGCS-LIG的(c)年平均温度与(b)夏季温度的均方根误差差异。北大西洋经纬度范围为0°~90°N,90°W~10°E;北太平洋经纬度范围为0°~90°N,100°E~90°W;北印度洋范围为0°~90°N,60°~100°E;南大西洋范围为0°~90°S,60°W~30°E;南太平洋范围为0°~90°S,110°E-60°W;南印度洋范围为0°~90°S,30°E~110°E

Fig.4 (a, d) Root mean square error of (a) annual and (d) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: ℃). (b, e) Root mean square error of (b) annual and (e) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: ℃). (c, f) Difference in root mean square error of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between 127ka-LIG and TGCS-LIG (units: ℃). The North Atlantic was over 0-90°N, 90°W-10°E. The North Pacific was over 0-90°N, 100°E-90°W. The North Indian was over 0-90°N, 60°-100°E. The South Atlantic was over 0-90°S, 60°W-30°E. The South Pacific was over 0-90°S, 110°E-60°W. The South India was over 0-90°S, 30°E-110°E.

图5 (a)TGCS-LIG试验末次间冰期与工业革命前的年降水异常(单位:mm/d)。(b)TGCS-LIG试验与127ka-LIG试验的年降水差异(单位:mm/d)。(c)TGCS-LIG试验与重建数据的年平均降水的符号一致性(单位:%)。(d)127ka-LIG试验与重建数据的年平均降水的符号一致性(单位:%)。图(a)打点表示重建资料指示末次间冰期降水偏多(蓝色)、偏少(红色)与无明显变化(白色)。

Fig.5 (a) Anomaly of annual precipitation during the Last Interglacial relative to the preindustrial based on TGCS-LIG (units: mm/d). (b) Difference of annual precipitation between TGCS-LIG and 127ka-LIG (units: mm/d). (c) Hit rate of annual precipitation between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (d) Hit rate of annual precipitation between 127ka-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). The blue, red, and white markers in (a) represent reconstructed increased precipitation, decreased precipitation, and no significant change during the Last Interglacial, respectively.

图6 TGCS-LIG试验(紫色)、127ka-LIG试验(红色)和PI试验(蓝色)的(a)Niño3指数(单位:℃)、(b)北半球环状模指数(NAM,无单位)与(c)南半球环状模指数(SAM,无单位)的年际变率

Fig.6 Interannual variability of the (a) Niño3 index (units: ℃), (b) Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) index (unitless), and (c) Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) index (unitless) based on the TGCS-LIG experiment at 1 ka interval (purple), 127ka-LIG experiment (red) and PI experiment (blue)

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末次间冰期全球气候瞬变模拟与平衡态模拟的对比研究

Transient and time-slice simulations of global climate change during the Last Interglacial: Model-model and model-data comparisons

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