前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.60

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。

关键词: 春季极端降水, 北极海冰, 预测

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between winter Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) and the frequency of spring extreme precipitation in eastern China and the underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, the predictive value of anomalous Arctic SIC signal for spring extreme precipitation in eastern China is explored. A close correlation is revealed between the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) of the spring extreme precipitation frequency and SIC anomalies in the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay (DSBB) in the preceding winter. In the North Atlantic, increasing in winter SIC anomaly is accompanied by anomalous winter atmospheric circulation that shows a positive North Atlantic Oscillation-like (NAO-like) distribution pattern, along with meridional tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. North Atlantic SST anomalies can persist from the preceding winter to spring, further exciting a wave train from the North Atlantic to mid-latitude Eurasia and inducing cyclonic anomalies in East Asia. Such cyclonic anomalies can significantly increase humidity and upward air motion in eastern China, providing favorable conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. In contrast, decreasing in winter SIC anomaly causes delayed anomalous spring atmospheric circulation unfavorable for extreme precipitation in eastern China. Results of leave-one-out cross-validation further indicate that this anomalous SIC signal has positive predictive value for spring extreme precipitation in eastern China.

Key words: spring extreme precipitation, Arctic sea ice, prediction

中图分类号:

P461
P731.15

张梦琪, 孙建奇, 郜永祺. 前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(5): 401-409.

ZHANG Mengqi, SUN Jianqi, GAO Yongqi. Possible influence and predictive value of preceding winter sea ice anomalies in the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay for spring extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 401-409.

图/表 9

图1 1979—2017年中国东部春季极端降水频次EOF1 a—空间分布;b—时间序列。

Fig.1 EOF1 of spring extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China during 1979-2017.

图2 1979—2017年中国东部春季极端降水频次PC1回归的前冬(a)和春季(b)海冰异常(%) 图中打点区域表示通过0.05 的显著性水平检验;方框代表DSBB SICI的定义区域。

Fig.2 Regressions of Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) anomalies (%) in (a) preceding winter and (b) spring against the PC1 of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency during 1979-2017

图3 1979—2017年10月—次年5月北极海冰气候态均值(%)(a-h)和标准差(%)(i-p)。注:方框代表DSBB SICI的定义区域。

Fig.3 Climatological mean (%) (a-h) and standard deviation (%) (i-p) of Arctic SIC from November to following May during 1979-2017

图4 1979—2017年前冬DSBB SICI回归的前冬(左列)和春季(右列)大气环流异常场 a,c—200 hPa位势高度(m)和风场(m/s);b,d—850 hPa位势高度(m)和风场(m/s)。深色和浅色阴影分别代表通过0.05和0.1的显著性水平检验。风场只显示通过0.1显著性水平检验的部分。

Fig.4 Regressions of atmospheric circulation anomalies in preceding winter (left panel) and spring (right panel) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

图5 1979—2017年前冬(a)和春季(b)海温异常与前冬DSBB SICI的相关系数图打点区域代表通过0.05的显著性水平检验。方框为MNA SSTI的定义区域。

Fig.5 Correlations of SST anomalies in preceding winter (a) and spring (b) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

图6 1979—2017年春季MNA SSTI回归的春季500 hPa位势高度(m)和波活动通量(m2/s2)(a)和850 hPa 位势高度(m)和风场(m/s)(b) 深色和浅色阴影代表通过0.05和0.1的显著性水平检验。风场只显示通过0.1显著性水平检验的部分。

Fig.6 Regressions of spring 500 hPa geopotential height (m) and wave activity flux (m2/s2) (a) and 850 hPa geopotential height (m) and wind (m/s) (b) against the spring MNA SSTI during 1979-2017.

图7 1979—2017年前冬DSBB SICI回归的春季925 hPa比湿(10-2 g/kg)(a)和500 hPa垂直速度(10-3 Pa/s)(b) 打点区域代表通过0.05的显著性水平检验。

Fig.7 Regressions of spring 925 hPa specific humidity (10-2 g/kg) (a) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (10-3 Pa/s) (b) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

图8 1979—2017年前冬DSBB SICI回归的中国东部春季极端降水频次打点区域代表通过0.1的显著性水平检验。

Fig.8 Regression of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

图9 1979—2017年观测的中国东部春季极端降水频次PC1(柱状图)和利用前冬DSBB SICI通过交叉检验方法预测的中国东部春季极端降水频次PC1(折线)

Fig.9 Time series of PC1 of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency in observation during 1979-2017 (bars) and the hindcasted PC1 by the preceding winter DSBB SICI, based on the leave-one-out cross-validation method (line).

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