泥石流灾害的物源控制与高性能减灾

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2020.6.39

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

传统的观点认为山区泥石流灾害的形成主要取决于降水,其产汇流运动的过程是可采用水文过程模拟的物理过程。基于目前泥石流灾害集中分布于地震带和干旱河谷的现象以及现有的泥石流形成与防治研究基础,我们发现在人类居住与活动的山区,其坡度和降水极易满足泥石流灾害的形成条件,因此物源控制着泥石流灾害的孕育、形成和演化,主宰了灾害性泥石流的过程。物源的动态变化改变了泥石流发育的难易程度,主导了泥石流的规模和频率变化。泥石流物源在内外动力作用下经历松散化或密实化两个不同的演化过程,不同密度的土体通过剪缩或剪胀形成不同规模、频率与性质的泥石流。此外物源也控制了泥石流的规模放大过程。实践证明基于物源控制理论的区域预测、分级多指标预警和工程调控技术是科学有效的。因此,灾害性泥石流是一个地质作用主导的地质过程,该过程的特征描述需要更多地考虑基于地质环境条件的经验模型,且高效能的灾害预测预警与调控需要基于物源控制的机理和过程而进行。

关键词: 泥石流灾害, 物源控制, 起动与规模放大过程, 预测预警体系, 高性能减灾

Abstract:

According to the traditional view, debris-flow disasters are mainly caused by precipitation, and the runoff, confluence process is a physical process that can be simulated by hydrological processes. However, based on the current observation that debris-flow disasters are concentrated in seismic zones and arid valleys, combining with the existing evidence on debris flow formation and prevention, we found that in human inhibited mountainous areas, the slope and precipitation conditions are prone to causing debris-flow hazards and consequently soil mass dominates the initiation, formation and evolution of debris-flow disasters. The dynamic variation of soil mass affects the feasibility of debris flow formation and also controls the scale and frequency of debris flow. Soil mass at the source region undergoes a loosening or compacting process depending on the internal and external dynamic geological effects, as debris flows of different scales, frequencies and properties are triggered by the failure of soil mass of different densities. And soil mass controls the debris flow enlargement process. It has been proven that the source control theory-based technologies, including regional prediction, multi-level, multi-indicator warning system, and engineering control technology, are scientific and effective in the prevention and mitigation of mountain hazards. Thus, catastrophic debris flows are a geological process and characterization of this process requires more consideration of empirical models based on geological conditions. In addition, the prediction, early warning and high-efficiency mitigation of debris-flow disasters should take into account the mechanism and process that are dominated by soil mass.

Key words: debris-flow disaster, soil mass domination, triggering and enlargement processes, prediction and warning system, resilient mitigation

中图分类号:

P642.23

陈宁生, 田树峰, 张勇, 王政. 泥石流灾害的物源控制与高性能减灾[J]. 地学前缘, 2021, 28(4): 337-348.

CHEN Ningsheng, TIAN Shufeng, ZHANG Yong, WANG Zheng. Soil mass domination in debris-flow disasters and strategy for hazard mitigation[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2021, 28(4): 337-348.

图/表 9

图1 我国泥石流灾害空间分布

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of debris-flow disasters in China

表1 我国泥石流灾害空间分布统计

Table 1 Statistics of spatial distribution of debris-flow disasters in China

区域	区域面积/ km²	导致人员死亡失踪灾害次数	死亡失踪人数	灾害点密度/ (个·10^-4 ·km^-2)	泥石流灾害集中带
I	31 520	4	42	1.269 036	喜马拉雅山东南缘冰川暴雨泥石流带
II	474 892	116	3 098	2.442 661	横断山—云南高原干旱河谷地震泥石流灾害带
III	165 307	65	745	3.932 078	秦巴山—龙门山—贵州高原雨屏泥石流灾害带
IV	274 083	21	181	0.766 191	II—III级阶梯过渡湿润山区稀遇泥石流灾害带
V	242 412	25	170	1.031 302	东南台风暴雨影响泥石流灾害带
VI	186 244	16	167	0.859 088	天山—昆仑山半干旱山区泥石流灾害带
VII	295 531	21	139	0.710 585	华北半干旱-半湿润中低山区泥石流灾害带
合计	1 669 989	268	4 542

图2 四川省泥石流空间分布

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of debris flows in Sichuan Province

图3 松散土体剪缩(a)和密实土体剪胀(b)起动形成泥石流示意图

Fig.3 Debris flow triggering mechanism via (a) shear shrinkage of loose soil mass or (b) shear dilatancy of compacted soil mass

图4 四川省宁南县矮子沟泥石流规模放大过程

Fig.4 Debris flow enlargement process in Aizi gully in Ningnan County, Sichuan Province

图5 2012—2017年泥石流灾害预测结果

Fig.5 2012-2017 predictions for debris-flow disasters

图6 泥石流分级多指标的预测预警体系

Fig.6 Multi-level, multi-indicator prediction and early warning system for debris flow

图7 监测预警体系在矮子沟(a,c)与大寨沟(b,d)的应用情况

Fig.7 Application of monitoring and early warning system for debris flow in the Aizi (a, c) and Dazhai (b, d) gulleys

图8 中国特色的泥石流减灾技术体系

Fig.8 Technical system of debris flow mitigationin China

参考文献 87

[1]	刘希林, 莫多闻. 论泥石流及其学科性质[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10(3):1-6.
[2]	陈宁生, 杨成林, 周伟, 等. 泥石流勘查技术[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011.
[3]	TAKAHASHI T. Debris flow on prismatic open channel[J]. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 1980, 106(3):381-396. DOI URL
[4]	胡凯衡, 崔鹏, 马超, 等. 宁南县矮子沟“6.28”特大灾害性泥石流成因和特征[J]. 山地学报, 2012, 30(6):696-700.
[5]	游勇, 陈兴长, 柳金峰. 汶川地震后四川安县甘沟堵溃泥石流及其对策[J]. 山地学报, 2011, 29(3):320-327.
[6]	ADDISON K. Debris flow during intense rainfall in Snowdonia, North Wales: a preliminary survey[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 1987, 12(5):561-566. DOI URL
[7]	GREGORETTI C. The initiation of debris flow at high slopes: experimental results[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 2000, 38(2):83-88. DOI URL
[8]	GABET E J, BURBANK D W, PUTKONEN J K, et al. Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal[J]. Geomorphology, 2004, 63(3/4):131-143. DOI URL
[9]	TANG C, VAN ASCH T W J, CHANG M, et al. Catastrophic debris flows on 13 August 2010 in the Qingping area, southwestern China: the combined effects of a strong earthquake and subsequent rainstorms[J]. Geomorphology, 2012, 139(2):559-576.
[10]	VAZ T, LUÍS ZÊZERE J, PEREIRA S, et al. Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database[C]//Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly Conference. Vienna: European Geosciences Union, 2017.
[11]	倪化勇, 王德伟. 基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报研究现状、问题与建议[J]. 灾害学, 2010, 25(1):124-128.
[12]	谭万沛, 韩庆玉. 四川省泥石流预报的区域临界雨量指标研究[J]. 灾害学, 1992, 7(1):37-42.
[13]	ZHOU W, TANG C. Rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, southwestern China[J]. Landslides, 2014, 11(5):877-887. DOI URL
[14]	周伟, 唐川. 汶川震区暴雨泥石流发生的降雨阈值[J]. 水科学进展, 2013, 24(6):786-793.
[15]	胡桂胜, 陈宁生, 游勇, 等. “7·10”连山大桥泥石流运动特征与沟道堵溃分析[J]. 成都理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 42(6):641-648.
[16]	WU C H, CHEN S C, FENG Z Y. Formation, failure, and consequences of the Xiaolin landslide dam, triggered by extreme rainfall from Typhoon Morakot, Taiwan[J]. Landslides, 2014, 11(3):357-367. DOI URL
[17]	CUI P, ZHOU G G D, ZHU X H, et al. Scale amplification of natural debris flows caused by cascading landslide dam failures[J]. Geomorphology, 2013, 182(1):173-189. DOI URL
[18]	DI B F, ZHANG H Y, LIU Y Y, et al. Assessing susceptibility of debris flow in southwest China using gradient boosting machine[J]. Scientific Reports, 2019, 9(1):12532. DOI URL
[19]	崔鹏, 庄建琦, 陈兴长, 等. 汶川地震区震后泥石流活动特征与防治对策[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2010, 42(5):10-19.
[20]	唐邦兴, 杜榕桓, 康志成, 等. 我国泥石流研究[J]. 地理学报, 1980, 35(3):259-264. DOI
[21]	陈宁生, 崔鹏, 王晓颖, 等. 地震作用下泥石流源区砾石土体强度的衰减实验[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2004, 23(16):2743-2747.
[22]	陈晓清, 李智广, 崔鹏, 等. 5·12汶川地震重灾区水土流失初步估算[J]. 山地学报, 2009, 27(1):122-127.
[23]	朱平一, 罗德富, 寇玉贞. 西藏古乡沟泥石流发展趋势[J]. 山地研究, 1997, 15(4):296-299.
[24]	CHEN N S, LI J, LIU L H, et al. Post-earthquake denudation and its impacts on ancient civilizations in the Chengdu Longmenshan region, China[J]. Geomorphology, 2018, 309(1):51-59. DOI URL
[25]	LIN W T, LIN C Y, CHOU W C. Assessment of vegetation recovery and soil erosion at landslides caused by a catastrophic earthquake: a case study in Central Taiwan[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2006, 28(1):79-89. DOI URL
[26]	REN D D. The devastating Zhouqu storm-triggered debris flow of August 2010: likely causes and possible trends in a future warming climate[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2014, 119(7):3643-3662. DOI URL
[27]	刘传正, 苗天宝, 陈红旗, 等. 甘肃舟曲2010年8月8日特大山洪泥石流灾害的基本特征及成因[J]. 地质通报, 2011, 30(1):141-150.
[28]	CHEN N S, LU Y, ZHOU H B, et al. Combined impacts of antecedent earthquakes and droughts on disastrous debris-flows[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2014, 11(6):1507-1520.
[29]	KEAN J W, STALEY D M, CANNON S H. In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Earth Surface, 2011, 116(1):1-21.
[30]	RAVANEL L, DELINE P. Climate influence on rockfalls in high-Alpine steep rockwalls: the north side of the Aiguilles de Chamonix (Mont Blanc massif) since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’[J]. The Holocene, 2011, 21(2):357-365. DOI URL
[31]	RAVANEL L, DELINE P. Rockfall hazard in the Mont Blanc massif increased by the current atmospheric warming[J]. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, 2015, 1:425-428.
[32]	STOFFEL M, BENISTON M. On the incidence of debris flows from the early little ice age to a future greenhouse climate: a case study from the Swiss Alps[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006, 33(16):271-284.
[33]	陈宁生, 佘德彬. 基于弃渣综合利用的矿山泥石流灾害防治新模式: 以冕宁盐井沟泸沽铁矿为例[J]. 山地学报, 2019, 37(1):78-85.
[34]	陈宁生, 周伟, 杨成林, 等. 工矿弃土弃渣泥石流灾害工程治理模式与应用[J]. 矿业研究与开发, 2010, 30(4):84-87.
[35]	张永双, 金逸民, 吴树仁, 等. 人工弃渣诱发泥石流的动力学研究: 以三峡库区巴东县黄家大沟为例[J]. 地球学报, 2005, 26(6):571-576.
[36]	JAKOB D M, HUNGR O. Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena[M]. Berlin: Springer International Publishing, 2005.
[37]	钟敦伦, 谢洪. 泥石流与人类经济活动[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 1999, 8(3):100-106.
[38]	PARKER R N, HALES T C, MUDD S M, et al. Colluvium supply in humid regions limits the frequency of storm-triggered landslides[J]. Scientific Reports, 2016, 6(1):1-7. DOI URL
[39]	卢阳, 陈宁生, 吕立群, 等. 湖南临湘贺畈沟灾害性泥石流成因分析和启示[J]. 人民长江, 2013, 44(7):28-32.
[40]	ZHANG Y, CHEN N S, LIU M, et al. Debris flows originating from colluvium deposits in hollow regions during a heavy storm process in taining, southeastern China[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(2):335-347. DOI URL
[41]	戴福初, 李焯芬, 黄志全, 等. 火山岩坡残积土地区暴雨滑坡泥石流的形成机理[J]. 工程地质学报, 1999, 7(2):51-57.
[42]	MA T H, LI C J, LU Z M, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Geomorphology, 2015, 245(1):193-206. DOI URL
[43]	袁丽侠, 崔星, 王州平, 等. 浙江乐清仙人坦泥石流的形成机制[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(2):150-154.
[44]	张勇, 陈宁生, 王涛, 等. 泰宁县芦蓭坑沟“5.8”特大泥石流成因和特性分析[J]. 泥沙研究, 2019, 44(4):54-59.
[45]	CHEN N S, ZHU Y H, HUANG Q, et al. Mechanisms involved in triggering debris flows within a cohesive gravel soil mass on a slope: a case in sw China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2017, 14(4):611-620. DOI URL
[46]	IVERSON R M. The physics of debris flows[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 1997, 35(3):245-296. DOI URL
[47]	IVERSON R M. Landslide triggering by rain infiltration[J]. Water Resources Research, 2000, 36(7):1897-1910. DOI URL
[48]	IVERSON R M, REID M E, IVERSON N R, et al. Acute sensitivity of landslide rates to initial soil porosity[J]. Science, 2000, 290(1):513-516. DOI URL
[49]	CHEN N S, ZHOU W, YANG C L, et al. The processes and mechanism of failure and debris flow initiation for gravel soil with different clay content[J]. Geomorphology, 2010, 121(3/4):222-230. DOI URL
[50]	南京水利科学研究院土工研究所. 土工试验技术手册[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2003.
[51]	LARSEN I J, PEDERSON J L, SCHMIDT J C. Geologic versus wildfire controls on hillslope processes and debris flow initiation in the green river canyons of dinosaur national monument[J]. Geomorphology, 2006, 81(1/2):114-127. DOI URL
[52]	MERRITT E. The identification of four stages during micro-rill development[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 1984, 9(5):493-496. DOI URL
[53]	张雄, 裴向军, 裴钻, 等. 极震区泥石流流量计算方法的研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2014, 23(6):227-233.
[54]	郭富赟, 孟兴民, 尹念文, 等. 甘肃省岷县耳阳沟“5·10”泥石流基本特征及危险度评价[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 50(5):628-632.
[55]	胡凯衡, 崔鹏, 游勇, 等. 汶川灾区泥石流峰值流量的非线性雨洪修正法[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2010, 42(5):52-57.
[56]	余斌, 杨永红, 苏永超, 等. 甘肃省舟曲8.7特大泥石流调查研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2010, 18(4):437-444.
[57]	陈宁生, 高延超, 李东风, 等. 丹巴县邛山沟特大灾害性泥石流汇流过程分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2004, 13(3):104-108.
[58]	陈宁生, 邓明枫, 胡桂胜, 等. 地震影响下西南干旱山区泥石流危险性特征与防治对策[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2010, 42(增刊1):1-6.
[59]	陈宁生, 刘美, 刘丽红. 关于山洪与泥石流灾害及其流域性质判别的讨论[J]. 灾害学, 2018, 33(1):39-43, 64.
[60]	高云建, 陈宁生, 田树峰, 等. 基于堆积物石块磨圆度的泥石流暴发频率判识[J]. 水土保持研究, 2018, 25(4):370-374.
[61]	陈宁生, 崔鹏, 刘中港, 等. 基于黏土颗粒含量的泥石流容重计算[J]. 中国科学: E辑, 2003, 33(增刊1):164-174.
[62]	余斌. 根据泥石流沉积物计算泥石流容重的方法研究[J]. 沉积学报, 2008, 26(5):789-796.
[63]	陈宁生, 杨成林, 李欢. 基于浆体的泥石流容重计算[J]. 成都理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 37(2):168-173.
[64]	康志成, 崔鹏, 韦方强. 中国科学院东川泥石流观测研究站观测实验资料集(1961—1984)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006.
[65]	RICKENMANN D. Empirical relationships for debris flows[J]. Natural Hazards, 1999, 19(1):47-77. DOI URL
[66]	陈宁生, 杨成林, 李战鲁, 等. 泥石流弯道超高与流速计算关系的研究: 以巴塘通戈顶沟地震次生泥石流为例[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2009, 41(3):165-171.
[67]	赵晋恒, 胡凯衡, 唐金波, 等. 考虑爬高效应的泥石流弯道超高公式[J]. 水利学报, 2015, 46(2):190-196.
[68]	中国地质灾害防治工程行业协会. 泥石流灾害防治工程勘察规范: T/CAGHP 006—2018[S]. 北京: 中国地质灾害防治工程行业协会, 2018.
[69]	周必凡, 李德基, 罗德富, 等. 泥石流防治指南[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1991.
[70]	DONOVAN I P, SANTI P M. A probabilistic approach to post-wildfire debris-flow volume modeling[J]. Landslides, 2017, 14(4):1-16.
[71]	CAPRA L, LUGO-HUBP J, BORSELLI L. Mass movements in tropical volcanic terrains: the case of Teziutlán (México)[J]. Engineering Geology, 2003, 69(3/4):359-379. DOI URL
[72]	NOCENTINI M, TOFANI V, GIGLI G, et al. Modeling debris flows in volcanic terrains for hazard mapping: the case study of Ischia Island (Italy)[J]. Landslides, 2015, 12(5):831-846. DOI URL
[73]	PICARELLI L, OLIVARES L, AVOLIO B. Zoning for flowslide and debris flow in pyroclastic soils of Campania region based on “infinite slope” analysis[J]. Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3/4):132-141. DOI URL
[74]	SEPULVEDA S A, REBOLLEDO S, VARGAS G. Recent catastrophic debris flows in Chile: geological hazard, climatic relationships and human response[J]. Quaternary International, 2006, 158(1):83-95. DOI URL
[75]	RODRÍGUEZ-MORATA C, VILLACORTA S, STOFFEL M, et al. Assessing strategies to mitigate debris-flow risk in Abancay province, south-central Peruvian Andes[J]. Geomorphology, 2019, 342(1):127-139. DOI URL
[76]	CARREÑO C R, KALAFATOVICH C S. The Alcamayo and Cedrobamba catastrophic debris flow (January, March and April 2004) in Machupicchu area, Peru[J]. Landslides, 2006, 3(1):79-83. DOI URL
[77]	BROOKS W E, WILLETT J C, KENT J D, et al. The Muralla Pircada: an ancient Andean debris flow retention dam, Santa Rita B archaeological site, Chao Valley, Northern Perú[J]. Landslides, 2005, 2(2):117-123. DOI URL
[78]	IMAIZUMI F, TSUCHIYA S, OHSAKA O. Behaviour of debris flows located in a mountainous torrent on the Ohya landslide, Japan[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2005, 42(3):919-931. DOI URL
[79]	LAVIGNE F, SUWA H. Contrasts between debris flows, hyperconcentrated flows and stream flows at a channel of Mount Semeru, East Java, Indonesia[J]. Geomorphology, 2004, 61(1/2):41-58. DOI URL
[80]	DUMAISNIL C, THOURET J C, CHAMBON G, et al. Hydraulic, physical and rheological characteristics of rain-triggered lahars at Semeru volcano, Indonesia[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2010, 35(13):1573-1590.
[81]	ARGUDEN A T, RODOLFO K S. Sedimentologic and dynamic differences between hot and cold laharic debris flows of Mayon Volcano, Philippines[J]. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 1990, 102(7):865-876. DOI URL
[82]	ADHIKARI D P, KOSHIMIZU S. Debris flow disaster at Larcha, upper Bhotekoshi Valley, central Nepal[J]. Island Arc, 2005, 14(4):410-423. DOI URL
[83]	COE J A, CANNON S H, SANTI P M. Introduction to the special issue on debris flows initiated by runoff, erosion, and sediment entrainment in western North America[J]. Geomorphology, 2008, 96(3/4):247-249. DOI URL
[84]	VARGAS G, RUTLLANT J, ORTLIEB L. ENSO tropical-extratropical climate teleconnections and mechanisms for Holocene debris flows along the hyperarid Coast of western South America (17°-24°S)[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2006, 249(3/4):467-483. DOI URL
[85]	PÉREZ F L. Matrix granulometry of catastrophic debris flows (December 1999) in central coastal Venezuela[J]. CATENA, 2001, 45(3):163-183. DOI URL
[86]	WIECZOREK G F, MOSSA G S, MORGAN B A. Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province, USA[J]. Landslides, 2004, 1(1):53-59.
[87]	ANDERSON D M, REYNOLDS R C, BROWN J. Bentonite debris flows in northern Alaska[J]. Science (New York, NY), 1969, 164(1):173-174. DOI URL