Transient and time-slice simulations of global climate change during the Last Interglacial: Model-model and model-data comparisons

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2024.1.5

Abstract

Abstract:

Performing transient simulation during 129-124 ka (TGCS-LIG) at high temporal and spatial resolutions (~1° × 1°, without orbital acceleration) and time-slice experiment at 127 ka (127ka-LIG) can advance our knowledge on the role of experimental setup in the simulation of climate change during the Last Interglacial (LIG). Here, we quantitatively estimate the impact of the experimental setup on the simulated global climate change during the LIG, which may shed light on the potential reasons for model-data discrepancies during the LIG. According to TGCS-LIG/127ka-LIG experiments, the global annual mean surface temperatures decreased by 0.4 ℃/0.2 ℃ during LIG relative to the preindustrial era, with the summer surface temperature over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere increased (decreased) by 1.2 ℃/1.5 ℃ (0.9 ℃/0.7 ℃). During LIG, the annual mean monsoonal precipitation increased (decreased) over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere, with large discrepancies across sub-regions. The hit rates (i.e., percentage agreement between model and reconstructed data) and root mean square errors were comparable between the two experiments. For global annual (summer) sea surface temperatures, the hit rates between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions were 34.9%-44.7% (36.8%-42.5%), biased by ~2%-4% (~5%-7%) compared with that of 127ka-LIG; root mean square errors between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions were 2.9-3.2 ℃ (2.9-3.4 ℃), which were ~0.1 ℃ biased compared with 127ka-LIG (generally consistent with 127ka-LIG). For global annual precipitation, the hit rate between TGCS-LIG and multi-proxies was 63.8%, higher by 0.7% relative to 127ka-LIG. The above results indicated that model-model differences were relatively small compared with model-data discrepancies. It is worth noting that TGCS-LIG suggested that the interannual variability of the ENSO showed an increasing trend, whereas the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode fluctuated. These characteristics of varied interannual variability revealed by TGCS-LIG were hardly deciphered in 127ka-LIG. Overall, we suggest that the differences in experimental setup for LIG climate simulations ((i.e. using the time-slice experiment or the transient simulation) may have limited impact on reconciling model-data discrepancies during the LIG, nevertheless, we still highlight the importance of performing transient simulation at high resolution in the investigation of climate variability during the LIG.

Key words: Last Interglacial, model-data comparisons, transient simulation, time-slice experiment

CLC Number:

P467

JIANG Nanxuan, YAN Qing, WANG Huijun. Transient and time-slice simulations of global climate change during the Last Interglacial: Model-model and model-data comparisons[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(1): 486-499.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1 External forcings used in the 130ka-LIG, 127ka-LIG and PI experiments

模式驱动因子		130 ka (130ka-LIG)	127 ka (127ka-LIG)	1950 A.D. (PI)
轨道参数	偏心率	0.038 209	0.039 378	0.016 724
	倾角	24.242°	24.040°	23.466°
	近日点-180	228.32°	275.41°	102.04°
温室气体	CO₂浓度	258×10^-6	275×10^-6	280×10^-6
	CH₄浓度	518×10^-9	685×10^-9	760×10^-9
	N₂O浓度	238×10^-9	255×10^-9	270×10^-9
	其余温室气体	0	0	PI

Fig.1 The evolution of (a) CO2 (units: 10-6), (b) CH4 (units: 10-9), (c) N2O (units: 10-9), and July insolation at 65°N at the top of atmosphere (units: W/m2) during 130-123 ka

Fig.2 Anomaly of (a, b) annual and (b, e) summer surface temperature during the Last Interglacial relative to the preindustrial based on (a, d) TGCS-LIG experiment (shade), (b, e) 127ka-LIG experiment (shade) and reconstructions from Turney et al.[1] (square), Capron et al.[18,47] (circle), Hoffman et al.[2] (triangle) and Brewer et al.[48] (cross) (units: ℃). (c, f) Difference of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and 127ka-LIG (units: ℃). The red and blue markers represent reconstructed warmer and colder states during the Last Interglacial, respectively.

Fig.3 (a, d) Hit rate of (a) annual and (d) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (b, e) Hit rate of (b) annual and (e) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (c, f) Difference in hit rate of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between 127ka-LIG and TGCS-LIG (units: %). The North Atlantic was over 0-90°N, 90°W-10°E. The North Pacific was over 0-90°N, 100°E-90°W. The North Indian was over 0-90°N, 60°-100°E. The South Atlantic was over 0-90°S, 60°W-30°E. The South Pacific was over 0-90°S, 110°E-60°W. The South Indian was over 0-90°S, 30°E-110°E.

Fig.4 (a, d) Root mean square error of (a) annual and (d) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: ℃). (b, e) Root mean square error of (b) annual and (e) summer surface temperature between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: ℃). (c, f) Difference in root mean square error of (c) annual and (f) summer surface temperature between 127ka-LIG and TGCS-LIG (units: ℃). The North Atlantic was over 0-90°N, 90°W-10°E. The North Pacific was over 0-90°N, 100°E-90°W. The North Indian was over 0-90°N, 60°-100°E. The South Atlantic was over 0-90°S, 60°W-30°E. The South Pacific was over 0-90°S, 110°E-60°W. The South India was over 0-90°S, 30°E-110°E.

Fig.5 (a) Anomaly of annual precipitation during the Last Interglacial relative to the preindustrial based on TGCS-LIG (units: mm/d). (b) Difference of annual precipitation between TGCS-LIG and 127ka-LIG (units: mm/d). (c) Hit rate of annual precipitation between TGCS-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). (d) Hit rate of annual precipitation between 127ka-LIG and reconstructions (units: %). The blue, red, and white markers in (a) represent reconstructed increased precipitation, decreased precipitation, and no significant change during the Last Interglacial, respectively.

Fig.6 Interannual variability of the (a) Niño3 index (units: ℃), (b) Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) index (unitless), and (c) Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) index (unitless) based on the TGCS-LIG experiment at 1 ka interval (purple), 127ka-LIG experiment (red) and PI experiment (blue)

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