Climate change and the associated glacier response in High-Mountain Asia during the mid-Holocene: A modeling study

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.55

Abstract

Abstract:

Using a 1-km resolution ice sheet model and the results from 11 global climate models in PMIP4, we investigate the spatial features of climatic changes in High-Mountain Asia (HMA) and their effects on glaciation during the mid-Holocene. The multi-model ensemble mean demonstrates that the annual mean temperature averaged across HMA reduces by ~0.7 ℃ during the mid-Holocene relative to pre-industrial, with a warming (0.7 ℃) and cooling (0.7 ℃) in summer and winter, respectively. The annual mean precipitation during the mid-Holocene shows a slight increase (0.5%) in HMA, whereas summer (winter) precipitation changes by +16% (-16%). HMA glaciers exhibit an obvious recession during the mid-Holocene relative to pre-industrial, with a reduction in ice extent (volume) by 13% (8%). Regarding the regional pattern, glaciers of the northern and western HMA retreat by ~58% (47%) and ~26% (25%), respectively, in terms of ice extent (volume). In contrast, glacier advance is observed over the southern HMA, with an increase in ice extent (volume) by ~20% (39%). Additionally, sensitivity experiments suggest that summer warming during the mid-Holocene dominate glacier recession in the northern and western HMA, whereas enhanced precipitation contributes largely to glacier advance in the southern HMA. These results may help to deepen our understanding of the variation of HMA glaciation during the mid-Holocene.

Key words: mid-Holocene, High-Mountain Asia, glaciation, ice sheet modeling, climate modeling

CLC Number:

P467

YAN Qing. Climate change and the associated glacier response in High-Mountain Asia during the mid-Holocene: A modeling study[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 372-381.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1 Information of the PMIP4 climate models (see https://pmip4.lsce.ipsl.fr/ for details)

编号	模式名称	机构(国家)	分辨率/格点数
1	AWI-ESM-1-1-LR	Alfred Wegener Institute (Germany)	192×96
2	CESM2	National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)	288×192
3	EC-Earth3-LR	Stockholm University (Sweden)	320×160
4	FGOALS-f3-L	Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China)	288×180
5	FGOALS-g3	Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China)	180×90
6	GISS-E2-1-G	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA)	144×90
7	INM-CM4-8	Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Russia)	180×120
8	IPSL-CM6A-LR	Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (France)	144×143
9	MIROC-ES2L	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo (Japan)	128×64
10	NESM3	Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (China)	192×96
11	NorESM1-F	Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (Norway)	144×96

Fig.1 Observed (a) and modelled (b) glacier distribution during the present-day.

Fig.2 Difference in temperature (℃) over High-mountain Asia between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial for (a) annual mean, (b) summer season, and (c) winter season based on the multimodel ensemble mean from PMIP4.

Fig.3 Box-plot for difference in temperature (a) and precipitation (b) between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across High-mountain Asia based on the 11 PMIP4 models. In a box-plot, the horizontal lines from top to below represent the maximum value, the 75th percentile, the mean, the 25th percentile, and the minimum value (the asterisk shows the median), respectively.

Fig.4 Difference in precipitation (%) over High-mountain Asia between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial for (a) annual mean, (b) summer season, and (c) winter season based on the multimodel ensemble mean from PMIP4

Fig.5 Box-plot for relative (a, c) and absolute (b, c) changes in glacier area (a, b) and volume (c, d) between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across the High-mountain Asia and its three sub-regions based on the 11 PMIP4 models. In a box-plot, the horizontal lines from top to below represent the maximum value, the 75th percentile, the mean, the 25th percentile, and theminimum value (the asterisk shows the median), respectively.

Fig.6 (a) Spatial distribution of change in glacier extent between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial with the climatic forcing from the PMIP4 multimodel ensemble mean. (b) Relative change in glacier area between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial averaged across the High-mountain Asia and its three sub-regions. The grey bars show the effects of both of temperature and precipitation change, with the red (blue) bars representing the influence of only temperature (precipitation) change.

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