Possible influence and predictive value of preceding winter sea ice anomalies in the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay for spring extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.60

Abstract

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between winter Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) and the frequency of spring extreme precipitation in eastern China and the underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, the predictive value of anomalous Arctic SIC signal for spring extreme precipitation in eastern China is explored. A close correlation is revealed between the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) of the spring extreme precipitation frequency and SIC anomalies in the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay (DSBB) in the preceding winter. In the North Atlantic, increasing in winter SIC anomaly is accompanied by anomalous winter atmospheric circulation that shows a positive North Atlantic Oscillation-like (NAO-like) distribution pattern, along with meridional tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. North Atlantic SST anomalies can persist from the preceding winter to spring, further exciting a wave train from the North Atlantic to mid-latitude Eurasia and inducing cyclonic anomalies in East Asia. Such cyclonic anomalies can significantly increase humidity and upward air motion in eastern China, providing favorable conditions for extreme precipitation in the region. In contrast, decreasing in winter SIC anomaly causes delayed anomalous spring atmospheric circulation unfavorable for extreme precipitation in eastern China. Results of leave-one-out cross-validation further indicate that this anomalous SIC signal has positive predictive value for spring extreme precipitation in eastern China.

Key words: spring extreme precipitation, Arctic sea ice, prediction

CLC Number:

P461
P731.15

ZHANG Mengqi, SUN Jianqi, GAO Yongqi. Possible influence and predictive value of preceding winter sea ice anomalies in the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay for spring extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(5): 401-409.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 EOF1 of spring extreme precipitation frequency in eastern China during 1979-2017.

Fig.2 Regressions of Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) anomalies (%) in (a) preceding winter and (b) spring against the PC1 of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency during 1979-2017

Fig.3 Climatological mean (%) (a-h) and standard deviation (%) (i-p) of Arctic SIC from November to following May during 1979-2017

Fig.4 Regressions of atmospheric circulation anomalies in preceding winter (left panel) and spring (right panel) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

Fig.5 Correlations of SST anomalies in preceding winter (a) and spring (b) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

Fig.6 Regressions of spring 500 hPa geopotential height (m) and wave activity flux (m2/s2) (a) and 850 hPa geopotential height (m) and wind (m/s) (b) against the spring MNA SSTI during 1979-2017.

Fig.7 Regressions of spring 925 hPa specific humidity (10-2 g/kg) (a) and 500 hPa vertical velocity (10-3 Pa/s) (b) against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

Fig.8 Regression of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency against the preceding winter DSBB SICI during 1979-2017.

Fig.9 Time series of PC1 of eastern China spring extreme precipitation frequency in observation during 1979-2017 (bars) and the hindcasted PC1 by the preceding winter DSBB SICI, based on the leave-one-out cross-validation method (line).

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