京津冀地区水资源供需演变面临挑战问题及研究途径

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2025.3.42

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近百年来京津冀地区社会经济快速发展、城市化进程加快、农田扩张、用水需求提高,叠加气候变化,导致区域水资源衰减和供需严重失衡;近年来大规模调水、节水、产业结构调整等缓解了水资源衰减和供需失衡状态;未来低碳、绿色发展以及应对全球变化,京津冀地区社会经济、生态环境将面临极大的调整,水资源演变情势、供需结构和安全保障将面临一系列新的挑战。本文将京津冀地区水文情势及水资源供需演变划分为三个阶段,系统分析历史不同阶段水资源演变“S型”曲线形成及驱动机制,阐述低碳、绿色发展以及应对气候变化对水资源供需格局转变的影响,提出促进当地水资源恢复能力的水循环机理以及提升应对极端气候变化的水资源保障能力研究途径,为京津冀地区乃至其他缺水地区水资源可持续利用提供科学支撑。

关键词: 水资源, 水循环, 供需平衡, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

In the past one hundred years, water demand and supply in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased greatly due to rapid socio-economic development, accelerated urbanization, expansion of crop land as well as climate change. It has resulted in substantial reduction of regional water resources that cannot meet the total water requirement. This situation has substantially alleviated in the recent years when executions of comprehensive measures of large-scale intra-basin water transfer, water conservation, and economic structure adjustments. As the low-carbon and greening development policy has announced for controlling global change and will be executed in future, the socio-economy and ecological environment in the region will be further adjusted. It brings new challenges and opportunities to make schemes of balancing available water resources and demands. This study divides the hydrological regime and the evolution of water resources supply/demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region into three stages, based on the characteristics of water resources and supply/demand relationship, and their causes, treating measures and pathways. The shifts in the drives of the water resources evolution in different stages of the “S-type” curve are systematically analyzed. The impact of low-carbon development, green growth, and climate change adaptation on the transformation of water resource supply and demand patterns is elucidated. Then, we propose the approaches to enhance the local water recovery capacity through the study of the water cycle mechanism, as well as pathways to improve the water resource security capacity in response to extreme climate change. This study will provide scientific support for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and other water-scarce areas.

Key words: water resources, hydrological cycle, supply and demand Balance, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

中图分类号:

P33
TV213

陈喜, 高满, 董建志, 王哲. 京津冀地区水资源供需演变面临挑战问题及研究途径[J]. 地学前缘, 2025, 32(3): 436-444.

CHEN Xi, GAO Man, DONG Jianzhi, WANG Zhe. Challenges and research pathways for the evolution of water resources supply and demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2025, 32(3): 436-444.

图/表 5

图1 京津冀地区水资源供需演变轨迹及其受气候、人类活动和科学认知影响示意图

Fig.1 Schematic of the evolution tracks of water resource supply and demand and the effects of climate, human activities and scientific cognition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

图2 海河流域累积降雨-径流关系(据文献[7]修改)

Fig.2 The accumulative rainfall-runoff relationship in the Haihe River Basin. Modified after [7].

图3 地下水水位下降导致的产流机制和河水-地下水转化变化

Fig.3 Changes in runoff generation mechanisms and river-groundwater transformations due to groundwater table declining

图4 京津冀地区2003—2020年(a)供水量、(b)用水量及其结构变化

Fig.4 Changes in (a) water supply, (b) water consumption and their structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2003-2020

图5 基于GRACE和水平衡模拟的华北地区水储量变化(据文献[23]修改)

Fig.5 Terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes in North China based on GRACE and water balance simulation. Modified after [23].

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