天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.2.50

地学前缘 ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 435-446.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.2.50

天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

王鹏寿¹^,²(), 许民¹^,²^,³^,^*(), 韩海东²^,³, 李振中¹^,², 宋轩宇¹^,², 周卫永²^,⁴

1.兰州交通大学数理学院, 甘肃兰州 730070
2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃兰州 730000
3.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
4.兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院, 甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2022-11-17 修回日期:2023-02-20 出版日期:2024-03-25 发布日期:2024-04-18
通信作者: *许民(1984—),男,副研究员,主要研究方向为冰冻圈水文与水资源。E-mail: xumin@1zb.ac.cn
作者简介:王鹏寿(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为气候变化与冰冻圈水文过程模拟。E-mail: wangpengshou11@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971094);国家自然科学基金项目(41871055);中国科学院青促会人才项目(2019414);中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室开放课题项目(SKLCS-OP-2021-11);甘肃省优秀研究生“创新之星”项目(2023CXZX-591)

Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan

WANG Pengshou¹^,²(), XU Min¹^,²^,³^,^*(), HAN Haidong²^,³, LI Zhenzhong¹^,², SONG Xuanyu¹^,², ZHOU Weiyong²^,⁴

1. School of Mathematics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Faculty of Geomatic, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2022-11-17 Revised:2023-02-20 Online:2024-03-25 Published:2024-04-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10⁸ m³,融水增加速率为0.24×10⁸ m³/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。

关键词: 度日模型, 冰川物质平衡, 融水径流, 阿克苏流域, 气候变化

Abstract:

Glacial meltwater is an important constituent of water resource in arid region of northwestern China. Quantitative assessment of meltwater changes is of significance to environmental protection and sustainable development of industry and agriculture in the middle and lower reaches. In this study, the glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan during a 60-yr period from 1957 to 2017 are simulated by the degree-day method, using daily precipitation and air temperature data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and glacier distribution data. Runoff components and runoff response to climate change are analyzed. During the 60-yr period, the mean annual mass balance was -94.6 mm w.e./a and the accumulative mass balance was -5.8 m w.e. The Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) showed a trend of runoff increase at a rate of 1.6 m/a. During the same period, meltwater runoff and runoff components showed significant increasing trend, where the mean-annual-total-runoff was 53.1×10⁸ m³/a and the rate of runoff increase was 0.24×10⁸ m³/a. Under warm and humid climate, glacier ice accumulation increased with increasing precipitation in the basin. Whilst, due to significant rise in temperature, glacial melting intensified and the effect of temperature on meltwater runoff increased. Therefore, the hydrological effect caused by the loss of glacier mass balance is enhanced. Results from this study help to further understanding of the effects of changes in regional glacier water resource.

Key words: degree-day models, glacier mass balance, meltwater runoff, Akesu River Basin, climate change

中图分类号:

王鹏寿, 许民, 韩海东, 李振中, 宋轩宇, 周卫永. 天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2024, 31(2): 435-446.

WANG Pengshou, XU Min, HAN Haidong, LI Zhenzhong, SONG Xuanyu, ZHOU Weiyong. Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(2): 435-446.

图/表 17

图1 阿克苏流域位置及气象台站和冰川分布

Fig.1 Location and distribution of meteorological stations and glaciers in Aksu River Basin

图2 模型计算流程图

Fig.2 Flow chart of model calculation

图3 阿克苏流域境内冰川面积分布

Fig.3 Distribution of glacier area by elevation in Aksu River Basin

表1 阿克苏流域各月降水梯度

Table 1 Monthly precipitation gradient in Aksu River Basin

月份	降水梯度/(mm·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.35
3	0.75
4	0.75
5	2.33
6	4.59
7	4.81
8	4.35
9	0.37
10	0.77
11	0.20
12	0.42

表2 阿克苏流域各月气温递减率

Table 2 Monthly temperature lapse rate in Aksu River Basin

月份	气温递减率/(℃·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.30
3	0.48
4	0.58
6	0.63
7	0.59
8	0.56
9	0.53
10	0.47
11	0.43
12	0.31

表3 模型参数

Table 3 Model parameters

模型参数	参数值
冰度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	2.5
雪度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	1.4
液态降水临界气温/℃	2
固态降水临界气温/℃	-0.5
液态校正系数	1.1
固态校正系数	1.3
融水渗浸冻结率	0.1
高程分带间隔/m	100

图4 阿克苏流域年均气温、年降水变化趋势与突变检验

Fig.4 Variations and M-K test of mean annual temperature and precipitation during 1960-2017 in Aksu River Basin

图5 冰川区年正积温、正积温天数、降水及降雪/降水变化趋势

Fig.5 Variation of annual positive accumulated temperature, days of positive accumulated temperature, precipitation and snowfall/precipitation in the glacier

图6 冰川区消融和积累年际变化及年内分布

Fig.6 Interannual variation and annual distribution of glacier ablation and accumulation

图7 1957—2017年阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡变化

Fig.7 Changes of glacier mass balance in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图8 阿克苏流域冰川平衡线高度变化

Fig.8 Variation of Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图9 1957—2017年冰川融水总径流量年际变化

Fig.9 Variation of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图10 1957—2017年冰川融水组成及其占比年际变化

Fig.10 Variation of meltwater composition and its proportion in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

图11 1957—2017年多年月均冰川融水组成及占比变化

Fig.11 Monthly composition and proportion change of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

表4 流域气候转型前后年均降水、气温、冰川物质平衡以及融水径流变化对比

Table 4 Comparison of mean annual precipitation, temperature, glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff changes before and after climate transition in Aksu River Basin

时段及对比项	降水/mm	温度/℃	物质平衡/mm	融水径流深/mm	融水总径流量/(10⁸ m³)
1957—1990	858.0	-8.6	-83.2	1 198.8	49.99
1991—2017	937.1	-7.8	-108.9	1 323.3	57.04
变化量	79.1	0.8	25.7	124.5	7.05
变化率/%	9.2			10.3	14.1

图12 流域气候转型前后年降水、气温和融水径流的关系((a)1957—1990年;(b)1991—2017年)

Fig.12 Relationship between annual precipitation, temperature and meltwater runoff before and after climate transition ((a) 1957-1990; (b) 1991-2017)

图13 冰川物质平衡和冰川融水总径流的关系

Fig.13 Relationship between glacier mass balance and total meltwater runoff

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天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan

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