咸海演化的关键问题及其对经济、社会和生态价值的重要启示

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2021.9.36

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文回顾了Aral Sea(咸海)海平面变化的最新认识,以供社会和经济项目决策者使用。我们提出了咸海生态标准的新认识:由于1960年之前当时的人类活动已经引起了湖泊萎缩,咸海在1960年之前是小到中型湖泊,而不是大型湖泊。对咸海认识的改变可能会使许多基于极端情景的昂贵计划变得更加现实。同时,基于地质、考古、历史和水文研究中所获得的多重数据的综合分析,本次结果认为咸海在过去的2万年内经历了多次突然的海侵和海退。然而,除了现代的原因外,引起这些变化的原因的认识仍然不完整,需要进行专门的调查研究。在这篇论文中,我们针对水位变化、气候变化与咸海盆地来自锡尔河和阿姆河供水变化相结合的研究方法进行了讨论。

关键词: 咸海, 湖平面变化, 气候变化, 水文变化

Abstract: The paper reviews the up-to-date knowledge on the changes of the Aral Sea level to make it useful for decision makers in social and economic projects. We propose a new vision of the ecological standard for the Aral Sea: small to medium size lake instead of huge one as it was before 1960, when modern human-induced shrinking started. Change of the vision may turn many expensive initiatives based on extreme scenarios to be more realistic. The conclusion is based on the multiproxy data obtained from geological, archaeological, historiographical and hydrological studies. These results gave a quite reliable scheme of the changes during about 20 thousand-year history of the Aral, which experienced multiple abrupt transgressions and regressions. However, understanding of the reasons for these changes, except for the modern one, is still not complete and requires special investigation. In this paper, we discuss approaches for correlating the water level changes with climate change and variations of the Aral Basin water supply from its feeding—the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers.

Key words: Aral Sea, lake level changes, climate change, hydrological changes

中图分类号:

X145

S.K.KRIVONOGOV, T.I.KENSHINBAY, R.Kh.KURMANBAEV, B.S.KARIMOVA. 咸海演化的关键问题及其对经济、社会和生态价值的重要启示[J]. 地学前缘, 2021, 28(6): 196-204.

S.K.KRIVONOGOV, T.I.KENSHINBAY, R.Kh.KURMANBAEV, B.S.KARIMOVA. The key question of the Aral Sea evolution important for understanding its economic, social and ecological values[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2021, 28(6): 196-204.

参考文献

[1] Aleshinskaya Z.V.,1991. Diatomic and palynologic characteristic of bottom sediments. In: Sevastyanov, D.V., Mamedov, E.D., Rumyantsev, V.A. (Eds.), History of Lakes Sevan, Issyk Kul, Balkhash, Zaysan and Aral. Nauka, Leningrad, pp. 243-246 (in Russian).
[2] Arzhantseva I.A., Ruzanova S.A., 2010. Gorodische Jankent I problema “bolotnykh gorodisch”. In: Bolelov, S.B. (Ed.), Ancient Civilizations at Middle East. Archaeology, History, Culture (Proceedings of International Conference). State Museum of East, Moscow, pp. 11-13 (in Russian).
[3] Austin P.,Mackay A., Palagushkina O., Leng M., 2007. A high-resolution diatom-inferred palaeoconductivity and lake level record of the Aral Sea for the last 1600 yr. Quaternary Research 67, 383-393.
[4] Baipakov K., Aubekerov M., Pachikin K., Takseitova G., Voyakin D., Kuznetsova L., Nigmatova S., 2007. Landscapes and environment during the time of the Kerderi (Aral) settlement. In: Bekseitova, R.T., Veselova, L.K. (Eds.), Problems of Ecological Geomorphology: Materials of IV Zhandaev International Conference, April 17-19, 2007. Kazak University, Almaty, pp. 64-67 (in Russian).
[5] Bartold V.V.,1902. Records on the Aral Sea and the Lower Stream of the Amudarya Since the Earliest Times to the XVIIth Century. Turkestan Branch of the Russian Geographic Society, Tashkent (in Russian).
[6] Berg L.S.,1908. The Aral Sea. An Experience of Physical-Geographical Monograph. Stasyulevich Publisher, St.-Petersburg (in Russian).
[7] Boomer I.,2012. Ostracoda as indicators of climatic and human-influenced changes in the late quaternary of the Ponto-Caspian region (Aral, Caspian and Black seas). In: Horne, D.J., Holmes, J., Rodriguez-Lazaro, J., Viehberg, F.A. (Eds.), Ostracoda as Proxies for Quaternary Climate Change. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 205-215.
[8] Burr G.S., Kuzmin Y.V., Krivonogov S.K., Gusskov S.A., Cruz R.J., 2019. A history of the modern Aral Sea (Central Asia) since the Late Pleistocene. Quaternary Science Reviews 206, 141-149.
[9] Catalogue of Monuments of the Kazakhstan Republic History and Culture, 2007. Aruna, Almaty (in Russian).
[10] Chalov P.I.,1968. The Non-equilibrium Uranium Dating. Ilim, Frunze (in Russian).
[11] Cretaux J. F., Letolle R., Berge-Nguyen M., 2013. History of Aral Sea level variability and current scientific debates. Global and Planetary Changes 110, 99-113.
[12] Easterbrook D.J.,2016. Using Patterns of Recurring Climate Cycles to Predict Future Climate Changes. In: Easterbrook, D.J., (Ed.), Evidence-Based Climate Science (Second Edition). Data Opposing CO2 Emissions as the Primary Source of Global Warming, Chapter 21. Elsevier, pp. 395-411.
[13] Ferronskii V.I., Polyakov V.A., Brezgunov V.S., Vlasova L.S., Karpychev Y.A., Bobkov A.F., Romaniovskii V.V., Johnson T., Ricketts D., Rasmussen K., 2003. Variations in the hydrological regime of Kara-Bogaz-Gol Gulf, Lake Issyk-Kul, and the Aral Sea assessed based on data of bottom sediment studies. Water Resources 30, 252-259.
[14] He Y.,Y. Zhao,C. Wang,Z. Wang,H. Song,M. Liu,W. Liu,Z.,2013. Late Holocene coupled moisture and temperature changes on the northern Tibetan Plateau. Quaternary Science Reviews 80, 47-57.
[15] Kes A.S.,1969. The main stages in the development of the Aral Sea. In: Geller, S.Y. (Ed.), Problem of the Aral Sea. Nauka, Moscow, pp. 160-172 (in Russian).
[16] Kes A.S.,1995. Chronicle of the Aral Sea and the sub-aral region. Geojournal 35(1), 710.
[17] Krivonogov S.,2014. Changes of the Aral Sea Level. In: Micklin, P., Aladin, N.V., Plotnikov, I.S. (Eds.), The Aral Sea. The Devastation and Partial Rehabilitation of a Great Lake. Springer, Heidelberg, pp. 77-108.
[18] Krivonogov S.K.,2009. Extent of the Aral Sea drop in the Middle Age. Doklady Earth Sciences 428 (1), 1146-1150.
[19] Krivonogov S.K., Burr G.S., Kuzmin Y.V., Gusskov S.A., Kurmanbaev R.K., Kenshinbay T.I., Voyakin D.A., 2014. The fluctuating Aral Sea: a multidisciplinary-based history of the last two thousand years. Gondwana Research 26, 284-300.
[20] Krivonogov S.K., Kuzmin Y.V., Burr G.S., 2010a. Environmental changes in the Aral Sea region (Central Asia): initial results of a radiocarbon-based study. Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms 268, 1080-1083.
[21] Krivonogov S.K., Kuzmin Y.V., Burr G.S., Gusskov S.A., Khazin L.B., Zhakov E.Y., Nurgizarinov A.N., Kurmanbaev R.K., Kenshinbay T.I., 2010b. Environmental changes of the Aral Sea (Central Asia) in the Holocene: major trends. Radiocarbon 52, 555-568.
[22] Letolle R., Mainguet M., 1997. History of the Aral Sea (central Asia) since the most recent maximum glaciation. Bulletin de la Societe Geologique de France 168, 387-398 (in French).
[23] Létolle R., Micklin P., Aladin N.V., Plotnikov I.S., 2007. Uzboy and the Aral Sea region: a hydrological approach. Quaternary International 173, 123-136.
[24] Lopatin G.V.,1957. Structure of the Amu Darya delta and its formation history. Proc. Lake Res. Lab. USSR Acad. Sci. 4, 534 (in Russian).
[25] Maev E.G., Karpychev Y.A., 1999. Radiocarbon dating of bottom sediments in the Aral Sea: age of deposits and sea level fluctuations. Water Resources 26, 187-194.
[26] Maev E.G., Maeva S.A., Nikolaev S.D., Parunin O.B., 1983. New data on the Holocene history of the Aral Sea. In: Maev, E.G. (Ed.), Palaeogeography of the Caspian and Aral Seas in the Cenozoic. Part II. Moscow State University, Moscow, pp. 133-144 (in Russian).
[27] Marcott S.A., Shakun J.D., Clark P.U., Mix A.C., 2013. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11300 years. Science 339(6124), 1198-1201.
[28] Micklin P., Aladin N.V., Chida T., Boroffka N., Plotnikov I.S., Krivonogov S., White K., 2020. The Aral Sea: A Story of Devastation and Partial Recovery of a Large Lake. In: Mischke S. (Ed.) Large Asian Lakes in a Changing World. Springer Water. Springer, Cham.
[29] Micklin P., Aladin N.V., Plotnikov I.S. (Eds.), 2014. The Aral Sea. The Devastation and Partial Rehabilitation of a Great Lake. Springer, Heidelberg.
[30] Nikolaev S.D.,1991. The development of the Aral Sea from oxygen isotope data. In: Sevastyanov, D.V., Mamedov, E.D., Rumyantsev, V.A. (Eds.), History of Lakes Sevan, Issyk Kul, Balkhash, Zaysan and Aral. Nauka, Leningrad, pp. 246-249 (in Russian).
[31] Nikolaev S.V.,1995. Isotope Paleogeography of Intracontinental Seas. VNIRO Publishers, Moscow (in Russian).
[32] Nourgaliev D.K., Heller F., Borisov A.S., Hajdas I., Bonani G., Iassonov P.G., Oberhänsli H., 2003. Very high resolution paleosecular variation record for the last 1200 years from the Aral Sea. Geophysical Research Letters 30 (17), 41-44.
[33] Oberhänsli H., Novotná K., Píšková A., Chabrillat S., Nourgaliev D.K., Kurbaniyazov A.K., Grygar T.M., 2011. Variability in precipitation, temperature and river runoff in W Central Asia during the past 2000 yrs. Global and Planetary Change 76, 95-104.
[34] Reinhardt C.,Wünnemann B., Krivonogov S.K., 2008. Geomorphological evidence for the Late Holocene evolution and the Holocene lake level maximum of the Aral Sea. Geomorphology 93 (3/4), 302-315.
[35] Rubanov I.V., Ischniyazov D.P., Baskakova M.A., 1987. The Geology of the Aral Sea. Fan Publishers, Tashkent (in Russian).
[36] Sevastyanov D.V., Mamedov E.D., Rumyantsev V.A. (Eds.), 1991. History of Lakes Sevan, Issyk Kul, Balkhash, Zaysan and Aral. Nauka, Leningrad (in Russian).
[37] Shermatov E., Nurtayev B., Muhamedgalieva U., Shermatov U., 2004. Analysis of water resources variability of the Caspian and Aral Sea basins on the basis of solar activity. Journal of Marine Systems 47, 137-142.
[38] Smagulov E.,2001. The discovery and study of the mazar on the Aral Sea bottom. Otan Tarikhy 4, 77-81 (in Russian).
[39] Smagulov E.,2002. A mausoleum on the sea bottom. Qumbez 4, 50-52 (in Russian).
[40] Sorokin D.V., Fofonov K.V., 2009. Investigation of the Kerderi 2 mausoleum. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan Republic. Social Sciences 247 (1), 230-236 (in Russian).
[41] Sorrel P., Popescu S. M., Head M.J., Suc J.P., Klotz S., Oberhänsli H., 2006. Hydrographic development of the Aral Sea during the last 2000 years based on a quantitative analysis of dinoflagellate cysts. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 234, 304-327.
[42] Sorrel P., Popescu S. M., Klotz S., Suc J.-P., Oberhänsli H., 2007. Climatic variability in the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia) during the late Holocene based on vegetation changes. Quaternary Research 67, 357-370.
[43] Tajekeev A.A.,2010. History of Reclamation of South-eastern Priaral'e from Ancient Times to the End of the I Century BC. Autoreferat of Candidate of Sciences Dissertation. Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology RAS, Moscow (in Russian).
[44] Tolstov S.P.,1962. Po drevnym del'tam Oksa i Iaksarta (Along the Ancient Deltas of the Oxus and Yaxartes). Eastern Literature, Moscow (in Russian).
[45] Tolstov S.P., Kes A.S., 1960. Nizov'ia Amu Dar'i, Sarikamich, Uzboi' (Lowers of Amu Darya, Sarykamysh, Uzboy). Materiali Khorezm Exped, Moscow (in Russian).