中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的深入研究

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2022.2.69

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

前期煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布特征研究是基于天然地震事件开展的初步探索。本文在前期研究的基础上,添加微地震事件,完善了时空分析方法,获得了更为全面的时空分布特征。整体上,煤矿灾害群发及伴随地震两个基本认识不变。数据显示,群发序列数量显著增多,群发范围明显变小,分析认为微地震事件频次高且距离事故矿井较近是重要原因。应力扰动作用的空间范围和持续时间对应聚类研究中的空间丛集程度和时间丛集程度,科研和生产意义重大。本文借鉴了聚类研究的分析方法,获得27 km的参考空间阈值和7 d的参考时间阈值,显示煤矿附近一旦发生应力扰动事件,周边27 km范围,7 d内可能会发生其他应力扰动事件;同时,典型案例显示煤矿灾害与宏观地震活动群发范围仍然可达100 km以上。完整的群发数据将随本文一起发布(https://pan.baidu.com/s/1sjnCEh3),本文得出的数据仅供参考。

关键词: 地震, 煤矿灾害, 聚类, 群发

Abstract:

The previous research on the time-space distribution features of coal mine disasters and earthquakes is a preliminary exploration on the basis of natural earthquakes. With microearthquakes added and time-space analysis methods improved, this paper obtains more comprehensive time-space distribution features. On the whole, the basic knowledge of the clustering feature of coal mine disasters and earthquakes remains unchanged. The data show that the number of clustering events increases significantly while the spatial range of clustering events decreases sharply, which, according to analysis, is primarily due to the close proximity between the high frequency microearthquakes and mining accident areas. Furthermore, the spatial range and duration of stress disturbance correspond to the degrees of spatial and temporal clustering, and this finding is of great significance to the scientific research and mining production. Based on the clustering research methods, a temporal threshold of 7 days and a spatial threshold of 27 km is obtained, meaning once a stress disturbance event occurs in the mining area, stress disturbance events may occur within 7 days and a 27 km radius. Still, typical cases show that the range of coal mine disasters and macroearthquakes can reach more than 100 km. The complete data of clustering events are available online (https://pan.baidu.com/s/1sjnCEh3). The time-space thresholds obtained here are for reference only.

Key words: earthquake, coal mine disaster, clustering, clustering events

中图分类号:

陈波. 中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的深入研究[J]. 地学前缘, 2023, 30(2): 548-560.

CHEN Bo. The clustering feature of time-space distributions of coal mine disasters and earthquake activities in China—an in-depth investigation[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2023, 30(2): 548-560.

图/表 22

图1 煤矿灾害与天然地震+微地震群发案例,圆圈范围对应群发事件(2003-06-10—2003-06-18) (地震数据引自文献[4];煤矿灾害数据引自文献[5];断层数据引自文献[6])

Fig.1 Examples of clustering events of coal mine disasters accompanied by natural earthquakes plus microearthquakes (circles indicate clustering events between June 10-18, 2003). Earthquakes data from [4]; coal mine disasters data from [5]; fault lines data from [6].

图2 煤矿灾害与天然地震群发案例,圆圈范围对应“缺失”的群发序列(2003-06-10—2003-06-18) (地震数据引自文献[4];煤矿灾害数据引自文献[5];断层数据引自文献[6])

Fig.2 Examples of clustering events of coal mine disasters accompanied by natural earthquakes (circles indicate “missing” cluster events between June 10-18, 2003). Data sources see Fig.1.

表1 煤矿灾害与全部地震伴随案例(微地震ID<0)

Table 1 List of all earthquakes accompanying coal mine disasters for selected clustering events (microearthquake ID as negative numbers)

序列ID	灾害ID	其他事件ID	日期(2003-06-10—2003-06-18)									距离/km	间隔/d
序列ID	灾害ID	其他事件ID	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	距离/km	间隔/d
495	2 338	2 343		√								0	4
495	2 343	2 338	√									0	4
497	2 348	2 367						√				29.75	8
497	2 367	2 348				√						29.75	8
498	2 350	2 374							√			42.35	3
498	2 374	2 350				√						42.35	3
499	2 352	2 351				√						5.875 3	4
	2 352	-51 476	√									26.88	4
	2 351	2 352				√						5.87	4
	2 351	-51 476	√									26.13	4
500	2 358	-51 803							√			48.67	6
		-51 539		√								11.95	6
		-51 802							√			35.63	6
		-51 569			√							41.19	6
502	2 359	2 361						√				0	2
	2 359	2 370							√			13.02	2
	2 361	2 359					√					0	2
	2 361	2 370							√			13.02	2
	2 370	2 359										13.02	2
	2 370	2 361						√				13.02	2
503	2 365	-51 763							√			33.59	1
506	2 368	2 382									√	16.09	5
506	2 382	2 368							√			16.09	5

图3 0.0~2.0级地震时间-频率图

Fig.3 Time-frequency diagram of magnitudes 0.0-2.0 earthquakes

图4 2.0~5.0级地震时间-频率图

Fig.4 Time-frequency diagram of magnitudes 2.0-5.0 earthquakes

图5 5.0~8.0级地震时间-频率图

Fig.5 Time-frequency diagram of magnitudes 5.0-8.0 earthquakes

图6 k-DIST曲线图示意图 (横轴:时间或空间要素点序号;纵轴:频数)

Fig.6 Schematic k-DIST graph (Horizontal axis: time/space point sequence number; Vertical axis: frequency)

图7 空间分布特征实验数据,左侧为空间分布图(横轴单位:km;纵轴单位:km);右侧为距离全排列后距离-频度分布图(横轴单位:km;纵轴:频数)

Fig.7 Experimental data of spatial distribution features. Left: Spatial distribution diagram. Right: Distance-frequency distribution diagram over full distance range.

表2 k-DIST曲线法实验数据

Table 2 k-DIST experimental data

蔟序号	点序号	X	Y	蔟序号	点序号	X	Y
S1	1	247	73	S4	20	274	133
	2	247	67		21	279	128
	3	248	72		22	279	133
	4	248	68		23	279	138
	5	250	70		24	284	133
	6	252	72	S5	25	232	105
	7	252	68		26	237	100
	8	253	73		27	237	105
	9	253	67		28	237	110
S2	10	247	122		29	242	105
	11	247	118	S6	30	301	54
	12	243	122		31	301	59
	13	243	118		32	301	64
	14	245	120		33	306	59
S3	15	286	103		34	311	74
	16	286	97	离散点	35	379	180
	17	289	100		36	296	59
	18	292	103		37	289	143
	19	292	97		38	279	153
离散点	40	267	90		39	257	100

图8 实验数据的k-DIST曲线数据(横轴单位:km;纵轴:频数)

Fig.8 Experimental k-DIST graph

图9 全部事件的距离全排列(横轴:距离,km;纵轴:事件频数)

Fig.9 Distance-frequency diagram for all clustering events

图10 全部事件的距离半排列(横轴:距离,km;纵轴:事件频数)

Fig.10 Distance-frequency diagram for all clustering events excluding earthquakes

图11 全部事件的时间间隔全排列(横轴:间隔天数;纵轴:事件频数)

Fig.11 Time interval-frequency diagram for all clustering events

图12 全部事件的时间间隔半排列(地震之间不计算)(横轴:间隔天数;纵轴:事件频数)

Fig.12 Time interval-frequency diagram for all clustering events excluding earthquakes

图13 距离全排列计算获得的k-DIST曲线(纵轴:距离,km;横轴:数据点序号)

Fig.13 Calculated k-DIST graph using all distance data

图14 距离半排列计算获得的k-DIST曲线(纵轴:距离,km;横轴:数据点序号)

Fig.14 Calculated k-DIST graph using all distance data excluding earthquakes

图15 灾害事件与最近邻居的距离计算获得的k-DIST曲线(纵轴:距离,km; 横轴:数据点序号)

Fig.15 Calculated k-DIST graph using distances between disaster and nearest events

图16 时间半排列的k-DIST(纵轴:时间,d;横轴:数据点序号)

Fig.16 Half time arrangement of k-DIST,vertical axis: interval (day),horizontal axis: point number

图17 灾害事件与最近邻居的间隔k-DIST(纵轴:时间,d;横轴:数据点序号)

Fig.17 Nearest neighbor on time of coalmine disasters of k-DIST, vertical axis: interval (day), horizontal axis: point number

表3 不同数据采用不同方法获得的时空阈值汇总表

Table 3 Summary of time-space thresholds using different methods and data

方法	类型	空间阈值	时间阈值
频率分布	全排列	27 km	5 d
频率分布	半排列	NULL	7 d
k-DIST	全排列	20 km	NULL
	半排列	50 km	20 d
	灾害事件最近邻居	24 km	4 d

图18 灾害事件与最近邻居的时间距离/空间距离频数分布

Fig.18 Frequency distributions of time intervals and distances between disaster and nearest events

图19 灾害事件与最近邻居的时间距离(左)/空间距离(右)比例统计图

Fig.19 Statistical diagram of time interval (left)/space (right) ratios concerning disaster and nearest events

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