Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.2.50

Abstract

Abstract:

Glacial meltwater is an important constituent of water resource in arid region of northwestern China. Quantitative assessment of meltwater changes is of significance to environmental protection and sustainable development of industry and agriculture in the middle and lower reaches. In this study, the glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan during a 60-yr period from 1957 to 2017 are simulated by the degree-day method, using daily precipitation and air temperature data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and glacier distribution data. Runoff components and runoff response to climate change are analyzed. During the 60-yr period, the mean annual mass balance was -94.6 mm w.e./a and the accumulative mass balance was -5.8 m w.e. The Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) showed a trend of runoff increase at a rate of 1.6 m/a. During the same period, meltwater runoff and runoff components showed significant increasing trend, where the mean-annual-total-runoff was 53.1×10⁸ m³/a and the rate of runoff increase was 0.24×10⁸ m³/a. Under warm and humid climate, glacier ice accumulation increased with increasing precipitation in the basin. Whilst, due to significant rise in temperature, glacial melting intensified and the effect of temperature on meltwater runoff increased. Therefore, the hydrological effect caused by the loss of glacier mass balance is enhanced. Results from this study help to further understanding of the effects of changes in regional glacier water resource.

Key words: degree-day models, glacier mass balance, meltwater runoff, Akesu River Basin, climate change

CLC Number:

WANG Pengshou, XU Min, HAN Haidong, LI Zhenzhong, SONG Xuanyu, ZHOU Weiyong. Response of glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff to climate change in the Akesu River Basin, southern Tianshan[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(2): 435-446.

Figures/Tables 17

Fig.1 Location and distribution of meteorological stations and glaciers in Aksu River Basin

Fig.2 Flow chart of model calculation

Fig.3 Distribution of glacier area by elevation in Aksu River Basin

Table 1 Monthly precipitation gradient in Aksu River Basin

月份	降水梯度/(mm·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.35
3	0.75
4	0.75
5	2.33
6	4.59
7	4.81
8	4.35
9	0.37
10	0.77
11	0.20
12	0.42

Table 2 Monthly temperature lapse rate in Aksu River Basin

月份	气温递减率/(℃·hm^-1)
1	0.29
2	0.30
3	0.48
4	0.58
6	0.63
7	0.59
8	0.56
9	0.53
10	0.47
11	0.43
12	0.31

Table 3 Model parameters

模型参数	参数值
冰度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	2.5
雪度日因子/(mm·d^-1·℃^-1)	1.4
液态降水临界气温/℃	2
固态降水临界气温/℃	-0.5
液态校正系数	1.1
固态校正系数	1.3
融水渗浸冻结率	0.1
高程分带间隔/m	100

Fig.4 Variations and M-K test of mean annual temperature and precipitation during 1960-2017 in Aksu River Basin

Fig.5 Variation of annual positive accumulated temperature, days of positive accumulated temperature, precipitation and snowfall/precipitation in the glacier

Fig.6 Interannual variation and annual distribution of glacier ablation and accumulation

Fig.7 Changes of glacier mass balance in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

Fig.8 Variation of Equilibrium-Line Altitude (ELA) in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

Fig.9 Variation of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

Fig.10 Variation of meltwater composition and its proportion in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

Fig.11 Monthly composition and proportion change of meltwater runoff in Aksu River Basin during 1957-2017

Table 4 Comparison of mean annual precipitation, temperature, glacier mass balance and meltwater runoff changes before and after climate transition in Aksu River Basin

时段及对比项	降水/mm	温度/℃	物质平衡/mm	融水径流深/mm	融水总径流量/(10⁸ m³)
1957—1990	858.0	-8.6	-83.2	1 198.8	49.99
1991—2017	937.1	-7.8	-108.9	1 323.3	57.04
变化量	79.1	0.8	25.7	124.5	7.05
变化率/%	9.2			10.3	14.1

Fig.12 Relationship between annual precipitation, temperature and meltwater runoff before and after climate transition ((a) 1957-1990; (b) 1991-2017)

Fig.13 Relationship between glacier mass balance and total meltwater runoff

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