CMIP6 multi-model prediction of future climate change in the Hotan River Basin

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2022.12.60

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate system models are the most extensive and effective tool for simulating historical and future climate, but they cannot be used directly to predict future climate change due to certain deficiencies and limitations of the models. In this study, taking 1971-2000 as base period, six climate models were evaluated using quantile-based daily bias correction (DBC), multi-model ensemble (MME) and correlation coefficient-based weighted multi-model ensemble (r-MME) methods to assess their applicability to predicting future climate change in the Hotan River Basin. In addition, r-MME was used to aggregate deviation-correction factors for the six models under three futuristic scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, to predict the near future (2021-2050) and long-term (2061-2090) spatial/temporal trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. Results show that combining r-MME and DBC can comprehensively utilize each model’s advantages and greatly improve simulation accuracy, as correlation coefficients of 0.918, 0.821 and 0.878 were achieved, respectively, in prediction of maximum/minimum annual average temperatures and annual average precipitation. These three climate indices all showed an upward trend, under the three scenarios, where the low-forcing SSP1-2.6 had the smallest long-term increments of 2.830 ℃, 2.523 ℃ and 46.412 mm, respectively, and the high-forcing SSP5-8.5 had the largest increments of 5.697 ℃, 6.452 ℃ and 93.206 mm, respectively; besides, the decrease of temperature difference between maximum and minimum temperatures in the future will result in more obvious warming and humidification in the basin. The research results can provide an important theoretical basis for the economic and heathy-ecosystem developments in as well as water resources prediction for the Hotan River basin under future climate change.

Key words: Hotan River Basin, CMIP6, model evaluation, deviation correction, climate change

CLC Number:

P403
P334.92

HE Chaofei, LUO Chengyan, CHEN Fulong, LONG Aihua, TANG Hao. CMIP6 multi-model prediction of future climate change in the Hotan River Basin[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2023, 30(3): 515-528.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig.1 Schematic diagram of study area

Table 1 Details of observed data

数据类型	数据名称	数据描述	来源
观测数据	中国地面降水/气温日值 0.5°×0.5°格点数据集(V2.0)	时间长度为1971—2014年	国家气象科学数据中心
CMIP6模式数据	历史数据	时间长度为1971—2014年	美国能源部劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室
	SSP5-8.5	未来情景数据:高强迫情景, 2100年辐射强迫稳定在8.5 W/m²
	SSP2-4.5	未来情景数据:中等强迫情景, 2100年辐射强迫稳定在4.5 W/m²
	SSP1-2.6	未来情景数据:低强迫情景, 2100年辐射强迫稳定在2.6 W/m²

Table 2 Introduction to each mode

模式名称	所属国家及研究机构	原始分辨率
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚,英联邦科学和工业研究组织-气候系统科学卓越中心	192×144
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国,北京气候中心	288×192
CanESM5	加拿大,气候模拟与分析中心	128×64
EC-Earth3	欧洲,EC-地球联盟	320×160
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国,法国拉普拉斯学院	144×143
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国,马克斯普朗克气象研究所	192×96

Fig.2 Simulated Taylor diagrams for maximum (a)/minimum (b) annual mean temperature in the Hotan River Basin from 1971 to 2000

Fig.3 Annual temperature changes in the Hotan River Basin from 1971 to 2000

Fig.4 Simulated Taylor diagram for annual mean precipitation in the Hotan River Basin from 1971 to 2000

Fig.5 Annual historical series and precipitation changes in the Hotan River Basin from 1971 to 2000 according to each simulation model

Fig.6 Future temperature changes in the Hotan River Basin under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.7 Future maximum/minimum temperature changes relative to the historical period (1971—2000) in the Hotan River Basin under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of future maximum/minimum temperature changes relative to base period under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.9 Future precipitation changes in the Hotan River Basin under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.10 Relative rate of change of future precipitation relative to the historical period (1971—2000) in the Hotan River Basin under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.11 Spatial distribution of future precipitation increase relative to the base period in the Hotan River Basin under different SSP-RCP scenarios

Fig.12 Plots of spatial correlation coefficients between MME/r-MME predictions and observations

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