Abstract:

In the procedure of tracing Wenchuan earthquake sequence and predicting Gansu earthquake situation, the author successfully grasped the Gansu earthquake situation, and the change of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence with time to some extent. The author successfully predicted the Sichuan Jiangyou Ms 60 of May 18, 2008, which provided a correct scientific basis for the antiearthquake relief work in Gansu Province. The prediction played an important role in easing the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the society. It makes the author more deeply understand that although earthquake forecast is a very complicated task and a global unsolved difficult problem, it is possible to make successful predictions for a particular region, if the way of thinking and the method used in the forecast are proper. This is of significance for geoscientists in understanding the problem of earthquake prediction.

Key words:

Longmenshan faults zone; Wenchuan earthquake sequence; real time tracing; Gansu earthquake situation; real time predicting