Abstract:

Geological analysis theory has been widely used in the field of territorial space planning. In order to further optimize the territorial spatial pattern of the Guanzhong Basin, and by taking the steps of identifying key factors, making quantitative evaluation, using well-founded threshold standards and obtaining credible results, we developed a new method based on the wooden barrel theory, risk theory, and marginal theory. The theoretical framework is centered on the evaluations of the resource environmental carrying capacity and land space developmental suitability (referred to as “dual evaluation”). Here, we applied this “dual evaluation” method to the Guanzhong Basin. We identified four key factors, including active faults in the Guanzhong Plain, geological hazards, selenium-rich land, and water resources transfer from Hanjiang to Weihe, according to the wooden barrel theory. We carried out resource carrying capacity assessment based on the marginal theory, and evaluation of geological environmental carrying capacity, land space developmental suitability and geological risks based on the risk theory. After completing the above single-factor evaluation, we performed a comprehensive evaluation and analyzed the results in conjunction with the current developmental status or planning of regional land space to adjust and optimize the so-called “three zones and three lines” of regional development. The final results showed that the “dual evaluation” method can be feasibly applied and the evaluation results are credible. Specifically, the results showed that 87% of land space in the Guanzhong Basin are suitable for agricultural production and urbanization. And the plain has become the best area for population and GDP growths in eastern China. In the development and protection of land space, concentrated and contiguous selenium-rich lands should be protected as permanent farmlands, while construction is prohibited in the active fault and high geohazardous areas. With the focus on territorial space planning and usage control, we can mitigate earthquake hazards and geological risks from the source.

Key words: barrel theory, marginal theory, risk theory, Guanzhong Basin, territorial space, carrying capacity evaluation, suitability evaluation