现代暖期气候变暖对南海北部陆坡天然气水合物分解潜在影响

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2022.1.4

地学前缘 ›› 2022, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 191-201.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2022.1.4

• 深海沉积与快速气候变化 • 上一篇下一篇

现代暖期气候变暖对南海北部陆坡天然气水合物分解潜在影响

贾永刚¹^,²^,³(), 阮文凤¹^,³, 胡乃利¹^,³, 乔玥¹^,³, 李正辉¹^,³, 胡聪¹^,³^,^*()

1.中国海洋大学山东省海洋环境地质工程重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100
2.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋地质过程与环境功能实验室, 山东青岛 266037
3.中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100

收稿日期:2021-09-23 修回日期:2021-11-14 出版日期:2022-07-25 发布日期:2022-07-28
通信作者: 胡聪
作者简介:贾永刚(1965—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事海洋工程地质与原位观测研究。E-mail: yonggang@ouc.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41907227);中国工程科技发展战略海南研究院重大咨询研究项目(21-HN-ZD-02)

Hydrate dissociation on the northern slope of the South China Sea: Potential effects from climate warming in the current warm period

JIA Yonggang¹^,²^,³(), RUAN Wenfeng¹^,³, HU Naili¹^,³, QIAO Yue¹^,³, LI Zhenghui¹^,³, HU Cong¹^,³^,^*()

1. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Geological Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2. Laboratory for Marine Geology, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266037, China
3. MOE Key Lab of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

Received:2021-09-23 Revised:2021-11-14 Online:2022-07-25 Published:2022-07-28
Contact: HU Cong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现代暖期(Current Warm Period,CWP,1850—至今)以来全球气温升高,南海北部陆坡底层海水温度升高、海平面上升影响海底天然气水合物稳定性。为探究现代暖期气候变暖对南海北部陆坡水合物分解影响,本文模拟计算了东沙海域、神狐海域、西沙海域、琼东南海域水合物赋存水深最浅处水合物的饱和度在1 000年内变化情况,评估了受现代暖期气候变暖影响水合物赋存水深范围,讨论了水合物分解量及其对环境影响。结果发现:(1)受现代暖期气候变暖影响,东沙海域、西沙海域、琼东南海域水合物分解,神狐海域水合物不分解;当东沙海域、西沙海域、琼东南海域水深分别超过665、770、725 m,水合物不分解;(2)现代暖期自始以来,南海北部陆坡水合物分解量为9.36×10⁷~3.83×10⁸ m³,产生的甲烷量为1.54×10¹⁰~6.28×10¹⁰ m³;(3)受现代暖期气候变暖影响,南海北部陆坡每年水合物分解量为5.5×10⁵~2.25×10⁶ m³,产生的甲烷量为9.02×10⁷~3.69×10⁸ m³,这些甲烷中3.61×10⁵~1.48×10⁶ m³能够进入大气,对温室效应贡献度为每年我国人类生活的0.01%~0.06%;与此同时,1.77×10⁷~7.23×10⁷ m³甲烷可能会在海水中被氧化形成弱酸,加重南海北部陆坡海水酸化。

关键词: 现代暖期, 天然气水合物分解, 底层水温度, 海平面, 南海北部陆坡

Abstract:

The global temperature has been rising during the current warm period (CWP, 1850-present). The rise of the bottom water temperature and sea level is affecting the stability of hydrates on the northern slope of the South China Sea. To explore the effects of the CWP climate warming on hydrate dissociation, we simulated the change of hydrate saturation during the past millennium at the shallowest depth in the hydrate reservoirs in the Dongsha, Shenhu, Xisha and Qiongdongnan sea areas, and revealed the depth range of the hydrate stability zone affected by the CWP climate warming, and discussed the extent of hydrate dissociation and its environmental impact. We showed that (1) hydrate dissociation occurred in the Dongsha, Xisha and Qiongdongnan sea areas due to the CWP climate warming, but only at water depths above 665 m, 770 m and 725 m, respectively; no hydrate dissociation observed in the Shenhu sea area. (2) Since the start of CWP, dissociated hydrates on the northern slope of the South China Sea amounted to (1.54-6.28)×10¹⁰m³, with (9.36-38.3)×10⁷ m³ methane released. (3) The annual hydrate dissociation affected by the CWP climate warming reached (5.5-22.5)×10⁵m³and produced (9.02-36.9)×10⁷m³ methane. The amount of methane that reached the atmosphere was (3.61-14.8)×10⁵m³, which accounted for 0.01%-0.06% of the annual methane contribution from human activities in China. Meanwhile, (1.77-7.23)×10⁷ m³ methane might be oxidized to form weak acids in seawater, which worsened acidification of the northern slope of the South China Sea.

Key words: current warm period, hydrates dissociation, bottom water temperature, sea level, northern slope of the South China Sea

中图分类号:

P467

贾永刚, 阮文凤, 胡乃利, 乔玥, 李正辉, 胡聪. 现代暖期气候变暖对南海北部陆坡天然气水合物分解潜在影响[J]. 地学前缘, 2022, 29(4): 191-201.

JIA Yonggang, RUAN Wenfeng, HU Naili, QIAO Yue, LI Zhenghui, HU Cong. Hydrate dissociation on the northern slope of the South China Sea: Potential effects from climate warming in the current warm period[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2022, 29(4): 191-201.

图/表 7

表1 不同海域水合物资源量统计表

Table 1 Hydrate resources in different sea areas

地区	水合物资源量/ m³	文献
全球	(1.8~2.1)×10¹⁶	[2]
南海	8.27×10¹³	[3]
南海北部	4.3×10¹³	[3]
东海	2.41×10¹³	[4]

表2 南海北部陆坡水合物储层基础物性表

Table 2 Physical properties of hydrate reservoirs on the northern slope of the South China Sea

区域	水合物储层分布水深/m	水合物饱和度	孔隙度	渗透率/ mD	热导率/ (W·m^-1·K^-1)	地温梯度/ (℃·100 m^-1)	水合物储量/ 10⁸ m³	文献
东沙海域	600~1 100	0.15~0.53	0.3~0.6	—	1.12~1.28	3.27~3.97	9.14	[3,33⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓-41]
神狐海域	900~1 500	0.2~0.7	0.33~0.55	0.2~20	0.65~1.31	5.18~8.42	1 500	[30,42⇓⇓⇓-46]
西沙海域	600~2 500	—	0.35~0.47	2~20	0.8~1.04	9.25~10.72	69	[5,37,47-48]
琼东南海域	650~2 000	—	0.26~0.59	—	1.55~1.81	4~6.08	2 500	[5,49⇓-51]

表3 不同海域模拟计算参数表(水合物赋存水深最浅处)

Table 3 Simulation parameters for the different sea areas (at the minimum depth of the hydrate reservoirs)

区域	水深/m	现代暖期初期底层水温度/℃	目前底层水温度/℃	孔隙度	渗透率/ mD	热导率/ (W·m^-1·K^-1)	地温梯度/ (℃·100 m^-1)
东沙海域	600	5.27	6.77	0.45	10.1	1.2	3.62
神狐海域	900	3.75	5.25	0.44	10.1	0.98	6.8
西沙海域	600	5.27	6.77	0.41	11	0.92	10
琼东南海域	650	4.94	6.44	0.43	11	1.68	5.04

图1 各海域海底水合物饱和度剖面随时间变化图(受现代暖期气候变暖影响) A—东沙海域水深600 m;B—神狐海域水深900 m;C—西沙海域水深600 m;D—琼东南海域水深650 m(左—原图;右—细节图)。

Fig.1 Changes of hydration saturation profiles over time in different sea areas (under the influence of CWP climate warming)

图2 各海域海底地温曲线随时间变化图(受现代暖期气候变暖影响) A—东沙海域水深600 m;B—神狐海域水深900 m;C—西沙海域水深600 m;D—琼东南海域水深650 m。

Fig.2 Changes of bottom temperature profiles over time in different sea areas (under the influence of CWP climate warming)

图3 各海域海底水合物饱和度剖面随时间变化图(受现代暖期气候变暖影响) A—东沙海域水深665 m;B—神狐海域水深900 m;C—西沙海域水深770 m;D—琼东南海域水深725 m。

Fig.3 Changes of hydrate saturation profiles over time in different sea area (under the influence of CWP climate warming)

图4 南海北部陆坡天然气水合物储层分布图(受现代暖期气候变暖影响)(据文献[63]修改)

Fig.4 Distribution of hydrate reservoirs on the northern slope of the South China Sea (under the influence of CWP climate warming). Modified after [63].

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现代暖期气候变暖对南海北部陆坡天然气水合物分解潜在影响

Hydrate dissociation on the northern slope of the South China Sea: Potential effects from climate warming in the current warm period

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