基于随机模拟的火山CO2释放通量预测研究:以意大利埃特纳火山为例

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.11.66

地学前缘 ›› 2024, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 429-437.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.sf.2023.11.66

• 非主题来稿选登：人工智能与地质应用 • 上一篇下一篇

基于随机模拟的火山CO₂释放通量预测研究:以意大利埃特纳火山为例

孙浩然¹(), 豆佳乐¹, 李南²^,³, 吴鹏¹, 杜聪¹, 段先哲¹^,²^,^*()

1.南华大学资源环境与安全工程学院, 湖南衡阳 421001
2.稀有金属矿产开发与废物地质处置技术湖南省重点实验室, 湖南衡阳 421001
3.南华大学化学化工学院, 湖南衡阳 421001

收稿日期:2023-06-25 修回日期:2023-11-02 出版日期:2024-07-25 发布日期:2024-07-10
通信作者: * 段先哲(1985—),男,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事地质学等方面的研究工作。E-mail: duanxianzhe@126.com
作者简介:孙浩然(1998—),男,硕士研究生,地质资源与地质工程专业。E-mail: shr6802@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41503016);国家外国专家项目(G2022029012L);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ30505);衡阳市指导性计划项目(202121014464);南华大学人才项目(2018XQD22)

Prediction of volcanic CO₂ flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example

SUN Haoran¹(), DOU Jiale¹, LI Nan²^,³, WU Peng¹, DU Cong¹, DUAN Xianzhe¹^,²^,^*()

1. School of Resource & Environment and Safety Engineering, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China
2. Hunan Key Laboratory of the Rare Metal Minerals Exploitation and Geological Disposal of Wastes, Hengyang 421001, China
3. School of Chemistry & Chemical Engineering, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, China

Received:2023-06-25 Revised:2023-11-02 Online:2024-07-25 Published:2024-07-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

火山活动能够将地球深部的碳输送到大气圈,是地质碳排放和深部碳循环的重要形式。火山区所释放的温室气体(尤其是CO₂气体),对全球气候有着重要的影响。在全球气候变暖及“碳中和”计划的背景下,估算火山区温室气体释放通量,评估其对全球碳排放的影响,具有至关重要的意义。本文阐述了火山区温室气体释放的主要特征及调查方法,并以意大利埃特纳火山为例,指出可以使用地统计学原理对火山区CO₂气体采样数据进行插值模拟。最后,本文分析了加入协变量进行协克里格插值模拟的可行性,并与普通克里格插值法的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:火山区CO₂释放通量与火山区土壤温度之间具有相关性,引入土壤温度进行协克里格插值模拟,可以优化模拟结果的误差指标。本研究将为定量评价火山活动对气候变化的影响以及预警火山灾害提供重要依据。

关键词: 火山活动, 温室气体, 碳排放, 随机模拟, 克里格插值法

Abstract:

Volcanic activity, as a significant source of geological carbon emissions and contributor to deep carbon cycles, transports carbon from the Earth’s interior to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases, particularly CO₂, emitted by volcanic regions, exert a profound influence on global climate dynamics. Against the backdrop of global warming and initiatives such as the “carbon neutral” program, accurately estimating the flux of greenhouse gases from volcanic regions and assessing their impact on global carbon budgets are imperative. This paper elucidates the primary characteristics and survey methodologies for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions in volcanic areas. It proposes employing geostatistical methods to simulate CO₂ sampling data from volcanoes, exemplified by Mount Etna, Italy. Additionally, the feasibility of incorporating covariates for cokriging interpolation simulations is analyzed, with comparisons drawn against ordinary kriging interpolation methods. Our findings reveal a correlation between CO₂ release flux and soil temperature in volcanic regions, indicating that integrating soil temperature into cokriging interpolation simulations can mitigate error indices in the results. This research offers critical insights for quantitatively assessing the impact of volcanic activity on climate change and enhancing early warning systems for volcanic hazards.

Key words: volcanic activity, greenhouse gas, carbon emission, stochastic simulation, Kriging interpolation method

中图分类号:

P317

孙浩然, 豆佳乐, 李南, 吴鹏, 杜聪, 段先哲. 基于随机模拟的火山CO₂释放通量预测研究:以意大利埃特纳火山为例[J]. 地学前缘, 2024, 31(4): 429-437.

SUN Haoran, DOU Jiale, LI Nan, WU Peng, DU Cong, DUAN Xianzhe. Prediction of volcanic CO₂ flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2024, 31(4): 429-437.

图/表 8

图1 意大利埃特纳火山区的CO2气体通量测试数据采样点分布示意图

Fig.1 Schematic diagram of the distribution of sampling points for CO2 gas flux test data in the Etna Volcano region of Italy

图2 主变量数据分布直方图

Fig.2 Histogram of primary variable data

图3 主变量数据QQPlot分布图

Fig.3 Quantile-quantile plot of primary variable data

图4 普通克里格插值法预测图

Fig.4 Prediction diagram using the ordinary kriging method

表1 普通克里格插值法误差表

Table 1 Error table for ordinary kriging interpolation

平均误差	标准平均误差	均方根误差	标准均方根误差
22	0.10	3 741	1.70

图5 协克里格插值法预测图(协变量:土壤温度)

Fig.5 Prediction graph using the cokriging interpolation method (covariate: soil temperature)

图6 协克里格插值法预测图(协变量:气体温度)

Fig.6 Prediction graph using the cokriging interpolation method (covariate: air temperature)

表2 协克里格插值法误差表

Table 2 Error table for the cokriging interpolation method

协变量	平均误差	标准平均误差	均方根误差	标准均方根误差
土壤温度/℃	69	0.05	3 586	1.65
气体温度/℃	280	0.24	4 683	2.56

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基于随机模拟的火山CO₂释放通量预测研究:以意大利埃特纳火山为例

Prediction of volcanic CO₂ flux based on random simulation: Taking the Mount Etna, Italy as an example

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