基于RAMMS的滑坡堵江危险性评价

doi:10.13745/j.esf.sf.2024.12.2

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 滑坡堵江事件在世界山地范围内广泛存在,往往会引发泥石流、堰塞湖、溃决洪水等次生灾害,是山地地质灾害链的重要组成部分。我国作为世界领土大国,地势辽阔,但山地面积比重较大,尤其在我国西南部地区,受板块挤压碰撞、地壳隆升影响,构造活动断裂屡见不鲜。同时该地区水系发育,怒江、澜沧江和金沙江自青藏高原起呈三江并流经云南省向南流去,构造运动的强烈侵蚀和河流下切作用导致沿河谷两岸岩土体破碎严重,为滑坡堵江地质灾害的发生提供了有利的地质条件。鉴于滑坡堵江事件频发及其危害的严重性,本文以澜沧江流域压吾板滑坡为例,通过野外地质调查、无人机航测、GeoStudio仿真模拟软件和RAMMS数值模拟软件,查明了滑坡的基本概况,分析了滑坡的成因机制和稳定性,模拟计算了滑坡的动态演化过程,最后对滑坡的堵江危险性做出了评价。结果表明:压吾板滑坡为一大型滑坡,滑坡总体积约7.6×10⁶ m³,在极端暴雨工况下稳定性系数为1.042,滑坡处于欠稳定状态,存在失稳滑动和堵江风险。RAMMS数值模拟结果表明:压吾板滑坡总运动时间为100 s,最大运动速度为42.6 m/s,最大运动高度为68.34 m。滑坡失稳后完全阻塞澜沧江,入江最大速度为25 m/s,形成堰塞坝最大堆积高度47 m,最大纵长1 200 m。本研究结果可为澜沧江流域滑坡堵江危险性预测提供参考依据。

关键词: 滑坡堵江, 无人机航测, GeoStudio, RAMMS, 堰塞坝, 危险性评价

Abstract:

Landslides blocking rivers are widespread in the world’s mountainous areas, often triggering secondary disasters such as mudslides, barrier lakes and outburst floods, and are an important part of the chain of mountainous geological disasters. China as the world’s territorial power, vast terrain, but the proportion of mountainous area, especially in the southwest of China, by plate extrusion collision, crustal uplift, tectonic activity fracture is common. At the same time the development of the region’s water system, the Nu River, Lancang River, Jinsha River from the Tibetan Plateau was three rivers flowing southward through Yunnan Province, the tectonic movement of the strong erosion and river undercutting effect led to the rock and soil along the banks of the river valley fragmentation is serious, for the occurrence of landslides blocking the river geologic hazards to provide a favorable geological condition. Given the frequent occurrence and severity of landslides blocking rivers, this article takes the Yawuban landslide in Lancang River Basin as an example. Through field geological surveys, unmanned aerial vehicle surveys, GeoStudio simulation software, and RAMMS numerical simulation software, the basic profile of the landslide was identified, the causal mechanism and stability of the landslide were analyzed, the dynamic evolution process of the landslide was simulated and calculated, and finally the danger of landslide blocking rivers was evaluated. The results show that the Yawuban landslide was a large landslide with a total volume of about 7.6×10⁶ m³, and the stability coefficient was 1.042 under the extreme rainstorm condition, the landslide was in an unstable state, and there was a risk of destabilizing and sliding and blocking the river. The RAMMS numerical simulation results show that the total movement time of the Yawuban landslide was 100 s, the maximum movement speed was 42.6 m/s, and the maximum movement height was 68.34 m. After the landslide became unstable, it completely blocked the Lancang River. The maximum speed of entering the river was 25 m/s, forming a dam with a maximum accumulation height of 47 m and a maximum longitudinal length of 1200 m. The results of this study can provide a reference basis for the prediction of landslide river blocking hazard in Lancang River Basin.

Key words: landslide blocking river, UAV aerial survey, GeoStudio, RAMMS, landslide dam, risk assessment

中图分类号:

P642

邸勇, 魏云杰, 谭维佳, 徐强. 基于RAMMS的滑坡堵江危险性评价[J]. 地学前缘, 2025, 32(5): 546-556.

DI Yong, WEI Yunjie, TAN Weijia, XU Qiang. Risk assessment of landslide-induced river blockage based on RAMMS[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2025, 32(5): 546-556.

图/表 21

图1 滑坡区地理位置图

Fig.1 Geographical location of the landslide area

图2 滑坡区2021年降雨量图

Fig.2 Rainfall map of the landslide area in 2021

图3 滑坡区地震烈度图

Fig.3 Seismic intensity map of the landslide area

图4 压吾板滑坡正射影像图

Fig.4 Orthophoto of the landslide on the pressure plate

图5 滑坡前缘坡脚

Fig.5 Slope toe at the front edge of landslide

图6 滑坡体岩土体特征

Fig.6 Characteristics of the rock and soil mass in the landslide

图7 滑坡体上方农田

Fig.7 Farmland above the landslide

表1 Frehmd-Xing模型参数

Table 1 Parameters of the Frehmd-Xing Model

参数	a	n	m	M_v	Sat.wc
数值	46 kPa	2.2	2	1×10^-5	0.36

表2 滑坡体计算参数

Table 2 Calculation parameters of landslide

参数	天然重度/(kN·m^-3)	饱和重度/(kN·m^-3)	黏聚力/kPa	内摩擦角/(°)	渗透系数/(mm·s^-1)
滑体	21	23	12	22	2×10^-6
基岩	25	—	800	50	1×10^-8

图8 GeoStudio软件计算模型

Fig.8 GeoStudio software computation model

图9 40 mm/d大雨工况下的稳定性系数

Fig.9 Stability coefficient under heavy rain conditions of 40 mm/d

图10 120 mm/d极端暴雨工况下的稳定性系数

Fig.10 Stability coefficient under the extreme rainstorm condition of 120 mm/d

图11 DEM过滤点云前后对比

Fig.11 Comparison map before and after filtering the point cloud

图12 RAMMS数值模型建立

Fig.12 Establishment of RAMMS Numerical Model

表3 RAMMS软件计算参数表

Table 3 RAMMS software calculation parameters

参数	DEM分辨率/m	释放区深度/m	释放区体积/m³	摩擦系数μ	湍流系数 ξ/s²	滑坡体密度/ (kg·m^-3)	模拟结束时间/s	动量百分比/%	转储步时间/s
数值	5	12	7 638 200	0.12	250	2 000	1 000	10	5

图13 压吾板滑坡堆积体运动高度-时间图

Fig.13 Movement height-time diagram of the landslide accumulation body on the pressure plate

图14 压吾板滑坡堆积体运动速度-时间图

Fig.14 Velocity-time diagram of the landslide accumulation body on the pressure plate

图15 压吾板滑坡不同区域堆积体占比图

Fig.15 Proportion of accumulation bodies in different areas of the landslide on the pressure plate

图16 入江堆积体横剖面形态图

Fig.16 Cross-section of the accumulation body in the river

图17 入江堆积体纵剖面形态图

Fig.17 Profile of the accumulation body in the river

图18 滑坡入江速度-时间图

Fig.18 Velocity-time map of landslide into the river

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