地学前缘 ›› 2008, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 251-259.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

汶川地震序列动态跟踪分析及对甘肃震情的判定

  

  1. 甘肃省地震局, 甘肃 兰州 730000

  • 出版日期:2008-06-20 发布日期:2008-06-20
  • 作者简介:杨国栋(1959—),男,副研究员,主要从事地震预报研究与实践工作。E-mail: yanggd@gssb.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(40874029)

On tracing the Wenchuan earthquake sequence and predicting the earthquake situation in Gansu Province.

  1. Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000, China

  • Online:2008-06-20 Published:2008-06-20

PDF (PC)

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摘要：

在对四川省汶川县地震序列的动态跟踪与对甘肃省震情的动态判定过程中,笔者成功地把握了甘肃震情、一定程度上把握了汶川地震序列的动态发展变化并对5月18日发生在四川省江油市的60级地震作出了成功预测。此次成功的地震预测实践为甘肃省的抗震救灾工作提供了正确的科学依据,为减轻地震灾害和稳定被地震扰乱的社会秩序发挥了重要作用,同时也在中国地震预报的历史上写下了新的篇章。从中笔者更加深刻地感悟到,地震预报虽然是一个十分复杂、尚未被攻克的世界性难题,但对于一个特定的地区,如果预报思路和方法得当,要实现一次乃至数次成功的预报是可能的。这对地球科学家们如何认识地震预报问题有一定的意义。

关键词: 龙门山断裂带; 汶川地震序列; 动态跟踪; 甘肃震情; 动态判定

Abstract:

In the procedure of tracing Wenchuan earthquake sequence and predicting Gansu earthquake situation, the author successfully grasped the Gansu earthquake situation, and the change of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence with time to some extent. The author successfully predicted the Sichuan Jiangyou Ms 60 of May 18, 2008, which provided a correct scientific basis for the antiearthquake relief work in Gansu Province. The prediction played an important role in easing the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the society. It makes the author more deeply understand that although earthquake forecast is a very complicated task and a global unsolved difficult problem, it is possible to make successful predictions for a particular region, if the way of thinking and the method used in the forecast are proper. This is of significance for geoscientists in understanding the problem of earthquake prediction.

Key words:

Longmenshan faults zone; Wenchuan earthquake sequence; real time tracing; Gansu earthquake situation; real time predicting

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