藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势

地学前缘 ›› 2009, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 207-214.

藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势

程尊兰,田金昌,张正波,强巴

1中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点试验室, 四川成都 610041
2中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 四川成都 610041
3西藏自治区交通科学研究所, 西藏拉萨 810000

收稿日期:2009-09-03 修回日期:2009-11-17 出版日期:2009-12-16 发布日期:2009-12-10
作者简介:程尊兰(1952—),女,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事泥石流和山区洪水(含山洪)的成灾机理与减灾技术研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40771024);国家科技支撑计划专题项目(2008BAKSOB045);交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200631879284);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(200801032)

Debris flow induced by glaciallake break in Southeast Tibet.

CHENG Zun-Lan, TIAN Jin-Chang, ZHANG Zheng-Bei, JIANG Ba

1Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
2Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
3Institute of Tibet Traffic Bureau, Lhasa 810000, China

Received:2009-09-03 Revised:2009-11-17 Online:2009-12-16 Published:2009-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰湖溃决泥石流是高山冰湖溃决洪水引起的突发性泥石流,是一种自然灾害现象,对藏东南社会、经济危害严重。文中根据实地调查及相关资料,分析了气温和降水对冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的影响以及冰湖溃决泥石流年内和年际的形成规律,并认为冰湖的溃决往往是由于异常气候条件造成的,冷湿的气候环境有利于冰川的积累。当气候转为湿热或干热,特别是气候突变异常年代,最易引起冰湖溃决泥石流。受西藏气候变化的影响,未来40年藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流的发展趋势呈抛物线“∩”型。

关键词: 冰湖溃决泥石流;气候变化;灾害;藏东南

Abstract:

The debris flow caused by flood of glacierlake break is a major disaster to Southeast Tibet. Based on field investigation and data analysis, this paper discusses the influences of climate factors on the lake break. It is found that the break is likely to occur after the abnormal changes in climate, especially at the turn from coldwet weather to hotdry weather. Debris flows due to glaciers will be more active in the future decades.

Key words: debris flow induced by glacierlake break; climate change; disaster; Southeast Tibet

程尊兰田金昌张正波强巴. 藏东南冰湖溃决泥石流形成的气候因素与发展趋势[J]. 地学前缘, 2009, 16(6): 207-214.

CHENG Zun-Lan, TIAN Jin-Chang, ZHANG Zheng-Bei, JIANG Ba. Debris flow induced by glaciallake break in Southeast Tibet.[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2009, 16(6): 207-214.