地学前缘 ›› 2016, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (3): 156-169.DOI: 10.13745/j.esf.2016.03.020

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中国煤矿灾害与地震活动时空分布丛集特征的初步研究

陈波   

  1. 长城钻探工程公司 解释研究中心, 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-16 修回日期:2016-02-17 出版日期:2016-05-15 发布日期:2016-05-15
  • 作者简介:陈波（1975—），男，博士，工程师，从事煤矿灾害与地震活动影响关系研究。E-mail：chenbo3124@sina.com

The preliminary research on the cluster feature of timespace distribution of Chinese coalmine disasters and earthquake activities

CHEN Bo.   

  1. Geoscience Center, Great Wall Drilling Company, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-05-16 Revised:2016-02-17 Online:2016-05-15 Published:2016-05-15

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摘要：

近期，中国数字地名库被公布，基于该库，本文对研究时段内5 825起煤矿灾害进行了空间定位，并将这些灾害与中国大陆同期发生的全部天然地震活动按照时空顺序进行了“回放”，揭示出48.7%的煤矿灾害不是随机分布，而是呈现典型的丛集特征，同时，部分煤矿灾害伴随周边地震活动。在深入研究中，发现更多的煤矿灾害都有微地震伴随，且地震在前，灾害在后的例子较多。在目前所认识的各致灾要素中，能够引发各种不同类型的灾害集中连续发生的，只有地应力扰动。大量伴随煤矿灾害的微地震有可能成为煤矿灾害前后构造应力场发生扰动（并致灾）的地球物理证据。为获得呈丛集发生的灾害比例、伴随灾害的地震数量、丛集序列一般持续的时间等重要信息，本文开展了时空丛集程度的定量研究。研究显示，在 100英里阀值约束下，至少38.5%的灾害呈丛集发生（总数7 368），其中，有372次灾害伴随地震活动；在时间上，灾害序列持续 2天的最多，1天的次之， 3天的再次，……，最长达11天。丛集序列持续的时间潜在地反映“应力扰动”持续的时间，那些持续1~2天的丛集序列与5级以下地震对应良好，可能和局部应力扰动有关；而那些持续时间长的丛集序列与宏观地震对应良好，可能与宏观灾害性地震引发的大范围应力扰动有关。本文将各距离阀值下完整的丛集序列追踪整理出来，供读者查询。最后，文章对丛集现象的机理进行了一般分析，并结合具体地质模型讨论了采掘活动与地震活动对矿区地应力的影响关系，分析了5种可能的影响情况。相关内容仅为推测，不做立论。该现象尚未被人们认识，对于地震研究和煤矿应力灾害研究，可能具有更多的启发意义。

关键词: 丛集, 地震, 煤矿灾害, 应力扰动

Abstract:

Recently, Chinese Geographic Name Database was published, based on which the author has located as many as 5825 coalmines. “Replayed” by natural order, it has been found that 48.7% of coalmine disasters did not occur randomly, but tended to occur continuously within certain scopes, presenting cluster feature, some accompanied with earthquakes (with magnitude>3), in which all the disaster types are involved. In further research, with micro earthquakes introduced, quite a few coalmine disasters are found to be accompanied with micro earthquakes, in which earthquakes tended to occur earlier than coalmine disasters. Of all the causative factors, stress disturbance is the only one that can cause all kinds of disasters at one time. The earthquakes accompanied with disasters may be the vital geophysical evidence of the tectonic stress fluctuation around mining area(causing coalmine disasters). This paper made a quantitative research, by which the ratio of disasters involved in cluster series and the number of earthquakes accompanied with disasters are achieved. For example, under threshold of 100 miles, of all the 7368 disasters, at least 38.5% are involved in cluster series, in which 372 disasters are accompanied with earthquakes. Of all the cluster series, the proportion of the durations sorted by descending order is 2 days, 1 day, 3 days, 4 days, …, 11 days. Potentially, the duration of cluster series reflects the duration of stress disturbance. The majority of the durations are composed of short ones, such as 1 and 2 days, which correspond well earthquakes (with magnitude<5) and are speculated to be more likely related to local stress disturbance. While the minority long durations correspond well with fatal earthquakes, which are speculated to be related to regional stress disturbance. In addition, all the cluster series under every threshold have been picked out successfully and a full open access is provided. As to the mechanism, the author makes the most common speculations on a given geological model, in which five affecting cases are analyzed. The phenomena remain unknown to human, which, to earthquake research and coalmine disaster prevention, widely scientific significance is suggested.

Key words: cluster, earthquake, coal mine disaster, stress disturbance

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